输变电系统可靠性评估中设备故障率预测方法研究

李莉; 熊炜; 陆冬梅; 龙燕; 袁旭峰; 邹晓松

李莉,熊炜,陆冬梅,龙燕,袁旭峰,邹晓松.输变电系统可靠性评估中设备故障率预测方法研究[J].电测与仪表,2015,52(3):.
Li Li,Xiong Wei,Long Yan,Lu Dongmei,Yuan Xufeng,Zou Xiaosong.A prediction method for failure rate of equipments in reliability evaluation of power transmission system[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2015,52(3):.

输变电系统可靠性评估中设备故障率预测方法研究

A prediction method for failure rate of equipments in reliability evaluation of power transmission system

DOI：

中文关键词: 输变电系统可靠性评估设备故障率预测 ARMA模型中图分类号：TM 774

英文关键词:Power transmission systems reliability evaluation power grid planning predicting of equipment failure rate ARMA model

基金项目:贵州省科技厅基金资助项目黔科合J字[2011]2060号S; 国家自然科学基金项目(510670001)

作者中文名	作者英文名	单位
李莉	Li Li	贵州电力试验研究院
熊炜	Xiong Wei	贵州大学电气工程学院
陆冬梅	Long Yan	贵州大学电气工程学院
龙燕	Lu Dongmei	贵州大学电气工程学院
袁旭峰	Yuan Xufeng	贵州大学电气工程学院
邹晓松	Zou Xiaosong	贵州大学电气工程学院

摘要点击次数: 2461

中文摘要:

准确地预测输变电设备的故障率,有助于提高输电可靠性指标评估及预测结果的可信度,进而提高输变电系统可靠性管理水平。然而,由于输变电设备在地域分布上复杂性、及运行状态的随机多样性,使输变电设备的故障率具有时变性、随机性等特点。同时由于反映设备故障的信息获取困难,故难以应用常规的回归分析法、分解分析法等时间序列分析法建立准确的故障率预测模型。本文提出了一种基于自回归-移动平均混合模型(ARMA模型)的输变电设备故障率预测方法,以适应输变电设备故障率的时变性和随机性。该方法以全网输变电设备故障率为研究对象,利用ARMA模型预测未来年的设备故障率,所需信息量少,克服了常规解析法进行输变电设备可靠性评估信息获取困难的缺点,能有效提高全网输变电设备可靠性评估的合理性和准确性。最后,对某省级电网220kV输电线路故障率进行了预测,结果表明,所提预测模型具有较高的精度,能够满足实际工程的应用要求,提高系统的稳定运行能力。

英文摘要:

Accurate predicting of failure rate of power transmission equipments can enhance credibility of reliability assessment for transmission systems and its prediction results, so as to improve the reliability management level of power transmission system. However, due to the complexity of power transmission equipments distributed geographically, and randomness and diversity of operation states, the failure rate of power transmission equipments have characteristics of time-varying and stochastic. As it is difficult to obtain the information reflecting equipment faults, conventional methods of regression analysis and decomposition analysis and time series analysis could not be used to establish accurate prediction model of failure rate. This paper presents a predicting method of transmission failure rate based on autoregressive-moving average(ARMA) model in order to adapt to time variation and randomness of equipment failure rate of power transmission system. The method is focused on equipment failure rate of whole power transmission system without the difficulty of obtaining information for reliability evaluation in conventional analytic methods, and less information is needed. So the validity and accuracy of reliability evaluation for equipments in whole transmission system are improved effectively. Finally, the method is used to predict the failure rate of a provincial 220kV power transmission system. The results have shown that the method has high accuracy, and can be applied to engineering practice to improve stability of power systems .

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