李海亮,曹彦朝,孟安波,卢海明,郭壮志.基于有效度遴选和纵横交叉算法的负荷组合预测[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(12):. lihailiang,caoyanchao,menganbo,Lu Haiming,郭壮志.A Combination Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Crisscross Optimization Algorithm[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2016,53(12):.
基于有效度遴选和纵横交叉算法的负荷组合预测
A Combination Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Crisscross Optimization Algorithm
There exist many uncertain factors in electric power system load. To address the low prediction of single model ,wavelet packet transformation is utilized to divide the original load curve into sub-sequences with different frequencies. On this basis, BP neural network, error feedback weighted time sequence and grey model are combined to form a new prediction modal,whose weight of every individual modal is optimized by crisscross optimization algorithm(CSO). Finally, continuous seven days' short-term load forecasting is implemented on certain district power grid in GuangDong. The results prove that the proposed model is apparently superior over other models like single prediction modal, equal weight prediction modal as well as the the inverse variance prediction model in terms of prediction accuracy.
