曹娜,牛恩荃,于群,王琪.考虑城市多场景和用户充电意愿的私家电动汽车充电负荷预测[J].电测与仪表,2020,57(21):84-91，110. Cao Na,Niu Enquan,Yu Qun,Wang Qi.Prediction of charging load of private electric vehicles considering urban scenarios and users’ charging decisions[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2020,57(21):84-91，110.
考虑城市多场景和用户充电意愿的私家电动汽车充电负荷预测
Prediction of charging load of private electric vehicles considering urban scenarios and users’ charging decisions
A load calculation method considering the charging probability of EV users and what kind of power charging pile is selected is given in the urban multi-use scenario. Firstly, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of private electric vehicles in urban power consumption scenarios are considered from a macroscopic perspective. Secondly, The main factors affecting the charging decision are analyzed from the user's point of view. Three variables, namely electricity price data, battery SOC and parking duration, are input to fuzzy inference system to generate the user's charging probability to describe user's charging willingness. Dynamic programming theory is used to determine what kind of power charging pile to charge. Finally, based on Monte Carlo idea, a spatial-temporal load prediction model for charging private electric vehicles in urban multi-electricity scenarios is given. By examples, it shows that the model can be used to analyze and calculate the charging load of private electric vehicles of city flexibly.
