方健,林翔,王红斌,尹旷,方敏,李盛楠.基于设备实时故障率的配电网停电概率计算方法[J].电测与仪表,2023,60(1):116-123. Fang Jian,Lin Xiang,Wang Hongbin,Yin Kuang,Fang Min,Li Shengnan.Calculation method of outage probability of distribution network based on real-time failure rate of equipment[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2023,60(1):116-123.
基于设备实时故障率的配电网停电概率计算方法
Calculation method of outage probability of distribution network based on real-time failure rate of equipment
Existing studies usually ignore the influence of external force damage caused by small animals and trees on real-time failure rate, and it is difficult to accurately calculate the undetermined coefficient in the real-time failure rate index model based on health index. A method is proposed to calculate the real-time outage probability of distribution network based on the combination of fault factor parameter correction and health index model. First of all, the historical failure rate of distribution equipment for many years is calculated according to the month, and then the historical failure rate is modified by using the method based on the parameter correction of fault factors. At the same time, the synergy between the main fault factors is also taken into account. The correction value of the failure rate is substituted into the real-time failure rate model based on health index to determine the undetermined coefficient in the exponential model. Then the feeder partition method is used to calculate the failure probability and outage time of each load point. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by the route in Guangzhou area.
