基于多融合贝叶斯变零值维纳电能表退化研究

钟劲松; 覃玉红; 邱 伟; 成 达; 唐 求; 张伟

钟劲松,覃玉红,邱伟,成达,唐求,张伟.基于多融合贝叶斯变零值维纳电能表退化研究[J].电测与仪表,2023,60(4):167-175.
Zhongjingsong,Qinyuhong,Qiuwei,Chengda,Tangqiu,zhangwei.Research on the degradation of energy meters based on multi-fusion Bayesian variable zero-value wiener[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2023,60(4):167-175.

基于多融合贝叶斯变零值维纳电能表退化研究

Research on the degradation of energy meters based on multi-fusion Bayesian variable zero-value wiener

DOI：10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2023.04.025

中文关键词: 智能电能表多融合贝叶斯变零值维纳退化典型环境应力

英文关键词:smart meters multi-fusion Bayesian variable zero-value Wiener degradation typical environment stress

基金项目:基于典型环境的智能电能表应力叠加效应可靠性技术研究 (5230HQ190F)

作者中文名	作者英文名	单位
钟劲松	Zhongjingsong	国网新疆电力有限公司营销服务中心
覃玉红	Qinyuhong	湖南大学电气与信息工程学院
邱伟	Qiuwei	湖南大学电气与信息工程学院
成达	Chengda	湖南大学电气与信息工程学院
唐求	Tangqiu	湖南大学电气与信息工程学院
张伟	zhangwei	国网新疆电力有限公司营销服务中心

摘要点击次数: 863

中文摘要:

针对高干热、高海拔与高严寒等典型环境应力下智能电能表退化趋势难以刻画的问题,提出了一种基于多融合贝叶斯变零值维纳的智能电能表退化研究方法。首先,对各公司的多个电能表样本基本误差与环境应力分布规律进行多维分析,选择合理先验分布；然后,采用多融合贝叶斯网络模型融合各种环境应力对多款电能表的退化趋势影响,并在此基础上建立变零值维纳退化模型；利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法实现非共轭条件下的模型参数求解后,通过比对分析多个模型预测结果及其置信区间,验证本文变零值维纳退化模型的适用性和优越性；最后,结合逆高斯分布,分析智能电能表的可靠度。结果表明,所建立模型能够准确分析典型环境下智能电能表随时间的退化趋势,适用于典型环境条件下智能电能表基本误差预测。

英文摘要:

Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to describe the degradation trend of smart meters under typical environmental stresses, such as high dry heat, high altitude and high cold, a method of smart meter degradation based on multi-fusion Bayesian zero-value wiener was proposed. Firstly, the multi-dimensional analysis of the basic error and the distribution law of environmental stresses in the samples of several smart meters of multiple company is carried out to select a reasonable prior distribution. Then, the multi-fusion Bayesian network model is used to integrate the influence of various environmental stresses on the degradation trend of various smart meters of each company, and then a variable zero-value wiener degradation model is proposed. After solving the model parameters under non-conjugated conditions by using markov chain monte carlo method, the applicability and superiority of the variable zero-value wiener degradation model is verified by multiple models’ fittings, predictions comparison analysis and its confidence interval. Finally, the reliability of the smart meters is analyzed with the inverse gaussian distribution. The results show that the model can accurately analyze the degradation trend of the smart meters with time under typical environmental stresses, and it also shows that it is suitable for the prediction of the basic error of the smart meters under typical environmental conditions.

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