范强,文屹,吕黔苏,张迅,肖宁,刘君.基于主变负载状况的变压器负荷预测和风险评估[J].电测与仪表,2024,61(11):99-106. Fan Qiang,Wen Yi,Lv Qiansu,Zhang Xun,Xiao Ning,Liu Jun.Transformer load forecasting and risk assessment based on main transformer load status[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2024,61(11):99-106.
基于主变负载状况的变压器负荷预测和风险评估
Transformer load forecasting and risk assessment based on main transformer load status
Aiming at the problem that the heavy load and long-term overload operation of equipment can easily lead to failures and even equipment burnout, this paper proposes a transformer load forecasting and risk assessment model based on the load status of the main transformer. First, the factors affecting the load of the main transformer are analyzed. In order to study the degree of influence of different factors on the load of the main transformer, the correlation coefficient matrix and the gradient promotion tree between the factors are calculated so that the relevant personnel can carry out the results of the main transformer load prediction and risk assessment. Analyze, find out the cause of overload, and deal with it in time. Secondly, use singular spectrum analysis and BP neural network to predict the load of the transformer, use the predicted load to establish a risk assessment model for the main transformer load, and comprehensively consider the load-related factors and the severity of the consequences. Finally, the analysis of a calculation example proves the feasibility of the proposed model.
