包育德.双碳背景下清洁能源调度优化及排放分析[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(3):54-63. BAO Yude.Scheduling optimization and emission analysis of clean energy under the background of dual carbon[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2025,62(3):54-63.
双碳背景下清洁能源调度优化及排放分析
Scheduling optimization and emission analysis of clean energy under the background of dual carbon
在双碳背景下，促进清洁能源消纳与碳减排已成为电网发展的重要目标。文章提出了一种优化方法，考虑可再生能源不确定性与系统功率储备进行系统调度。在预测误差分析的基础上，提出了一种基于负荷损失概率的评估方法，以确定系统运行储备功率。将系统运营成本和CO2排放量建模为优化目标。优化过程包括两个阶段，在第一阶段优化中利用混合整数线性规划(mixed integer linear programming, MILP)方法进行确定性优化，生成具有规定功率储备要求的发电机组组合。在第二阶段优化中考虑预测不确定性，对运行计划进行调整，使用可控发电机来处理预测偏差。将不同方法下可用运行储备功率、成本和CO2排放量在仿真中进行了对比。与传统确定性调度方法相比，在保证目标安全水平的同时，所提出的方法节省了大约15%的经济成本和环境成本。
英文摘要:
Under the dual-carbon background, promoting clean energy consumption and carbon emission reduction has become an important goal of power grid development. This paper presents an optimization method for system scheduling considering the uncertainty of renewable energy and system power reserve. Firstly, based on the prediction error analysis, an evaluation method based on load loss probability is proposed to determine the system operation reserve power. Then, the system operation cost and carbon dioxide emission are modeled as the optimization objectives. The optimization process includes two stages. In the first stage, the mixed integer linear programming (MILP) method is used for deterministic optimization to generate the generator set combination with specified power reserve requirements. In the second stage of optimization, the prediction uncertainty is considered, the operation plan is adjusted, and the controllable generator is used to deal with the prediction deviation. The available operating reserve power, cost and carbon dioxide emission under different methods are compared in the simulation. Compared with the traditional deterministic scheduling method, the proposed method saves about 15% of the economic and environmental costs while ensuring the target security level.
