张海涛,李文娟,李雪峰,谢长青,朱其虎,向春勇.基于变分模态分解和时间注意力机制TCN网络的光伏发电功率预测[J].电测与仪表,2024,61(12):156-163. ZHANG Haitao,LI Wenjuan,LI Xuefeng,XIE Changqing,ZHU Qihu,XIANG Chunyong.Photovoltaic power forecasting based on TPA-TCN model and variational modal decomposition[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2024,61(12):156-163.
基于变分模态分解和时间注意力机制TCN网络的光伏发电功率预测
Photovoltaic power forecasting based on TPA-TCN model and variational modal decomposition
Photovoltaic output power has the characteristics of strong volatility and high randomness, which is highly sensitive to weather factors. A short-term photovoltaic power prediction method combines variational modal decomposition (VMD) and temporal convolutional network (TCN) with attention mechanism is proposed in this paper. Firstly, VMD decomposition method is used to decompose the time series of photovoltaic power into several modal components with different characteristics, the sub-series data with different time spans and weather factors were constructed to realize the decoupling of the original time series data and weather factors. Secondly, TPA mechanism was introduced into the TCN network to capture the potential logic rule of photovoltaic power time series based on reasonable allocation of different time step weights. The PV power is forecasted by reconstructing the sub-sequence prediction results. Finally, the proposed method is compared with the traditional methods based on the actual operation data, the results shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the predicting accuracy.
