新型电力系统下架空输电线路受极端天气影响的风险评估与运维决策

麻宁杰; 王华昕; 汤　波; 张高丽; 孙　伟

麻宁杰,王华昕,汤　波,张高丽,孙　伟.新型电力系统下架空输电线路受极端天气影响的风险评估与运维决策[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(11):95-102.
MA Ningjie,WANG Huaxin,TANG Bo,ZHANG Gaoli,SUN Wei.Risk assessment and operation and maintenance decision of overhead transmission lines affected by extreme weather in novel power system[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2025,62(11):95-102.

新型电力系统下架空输电线路受极端天气影响的风险评估与运维决策

Risk assessment and operation and maintenance decision of overhead transmission lines affected by extreme weather in novel power system

DOI：10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.11.011

中文关键词: 新型电力系统极端天气架空输电线路风险评估电网韧性

英文关键词:novel power system, extreme weather, overhead transmission line, risk assessment, grid toughness

基金项目:浙江省电力公司科技项目(5211SX1900PS)

作者中文名	作者英文名	单位
麻宁杰	MA Ningjie	上海电力大学电气工程学院，上海 200090
王华昕	WANG Huaxin	上海电力大学电气工程学院，上海 200090
汤　波	TANG Bo	上海电力大学电气工程学院，上海 200090
张高丽	ZHANG Gaoli	上海电力大学电气工程学院，上海 200090
孙　伟	SUN Wei	浙江省电力公司绍兴供电公司，浙江绍兴 312000

摘要点击次数: 17

中文摘要:

面向“双碳”目标,建设新型电力系统是电网转型升级的必经之路。新型电力系统的建设和发展使电网对韧性和输电线路运行可靠性提出了更高的要求。尤其是极端天气极易造成电网停电事故，给国民经济和人民生活带来巨大损失。极端天气导致架空输电线路荷载超限是停电事故的主要原因，基于线路荷载-强度特性与概率统计理论，提出极端天气下架空输电线路运行风险评估方法。以极端天气气象数据、电网结构参数、地理信息数据构建时变组合负载模型；建立了断线故障下考虑时变组合负载的线路时变风险模型，采用拉丁超立方抽样法模拟，提出输电线路风险评价指标表征线路实时风险与时变风险，以指导输电线路运维改造。以浙江电网实际输电线路为例进行案例分析，结果表明所提极端天气下输电线路风险评估方法能够有效评估线路运行风险，线路运维改造方案能够有效提升电网韧性。

英文摘要:

Facing the goal of "double carbon", the construction of a novel power system is the only way for the transformation and upgrading of power grid. With the construction and development of novel power system, the power grid has put forward higher requirements for toughness and transmission line operation reliability. In particular, extreme weather can easily cause power outages and bring huge losses to the national economy and lives of people. The overload of overhead transmission lines caused by extreme weather is the main cause of power outage. Based on load-strength characteristics of transmission lines and probability and statistical theory, a risk assessment method for the operation of overhead transmission lines under extreme weather is proposed. The time-varying combined load model is constructed with extreme weather and meteorological data, structural parameters of power network and geographic information data. In this paper, a time-varying risk propagation model considering time-varying combined load is established, fault set is obtained by fault simulation using Latin hypercube sampling method, a transmission line risk assessment index is proposed to characterize the real-time risk and time-varying risk of transmission lines to guide the operation and maintenance of transmission lines. Take an actual transmission line of Zhejiang Power Grid as an example, the results show that the proposed extreme weather transmission line risk assessment method can effectively evaluate the risk situation of transmission line operation. The reconstruction scheme of line operation and maintenance can effectively improve the toughness of power grid.

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