基于场景概率的日前-日内两阶段限流措施优化

章谋成; 林湘宁; 魏繁荣; 黄梓欣; 孙佳航; 曹豪

章谋成,林湘宁,魏繁荣,黄梓欣,孙佳航,曹豪.基于场景概率的日前-日内两阶段限流措施优化[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(12):71-80.
ZHANG Moucheng,LIN Xiangling,WEI Fanrong,HUANG Zixin,SUN Jiahang,CAO Hao.Optimization of two-stage day-ahead and intra-day flow limiting measures based on scenario probability[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2025,62(12):71-80.

基于场景概率的日前-日内两阶段限流措施优化

Optimization of two-stage day-ahead and intra-day flow limiting measures based on scenario probability

DOI：10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.12.009

中文关键词: 新能源短路电流数据-物理联合驱动

英文关键词:new energy, short-circuit current (SCC), data-physical joint drive

基金项目:新型电力系统灰启动基础理论与方法（U22B20106）；电动汽车充电网络广泛接入下的电网跨域攻击监测及防御策略（52107095）

作者中文名	作者英文名	单位
章谋成	ZHANG Moucheng	三峡大学电气与新能源学院
林湘宁	LIN Xiangling	华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室
魏繁荣	WEI Fanrong	华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室
黄梓欣	HUANG Zixin	华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室
孙佳航	SUN Jiahang	三峡大学电气与新能源学院
曹豪	CAO Hao	三峡大学电气与新能源学院

摘要点击次数: 393

中文摘要:

短路电流超标现象严重困扰电力系统运行方式制定。当前依据日前预测的最恶劣场景来进行限流决策，以经济性为代价保证安全性。但随着新能源大规模接入，其不确定性导致最恶劣场景可能是一个与正常场景相去甚远的极小概率场景，以之为依据进行限流决策将严重影响经济性。若日前处理较大概率场景，在日内无遗漏地紧急处理极小概率场景则能制定出更具经济性的限流策略。为此，文中提出基于场景概率的日前-日内两阶段限流措施优化框架。以日前-日内综合成本期望最低为原则划分日前和日内处理场景并制定日前限流措施；针对日内紧急限流，提出基于数据-物理联合驱动的短路电流实时预测方法，在日内实时预测并进行紧急限流，以发现并处理极小概率超标场景。仿真结果表明，所提两阶段优化框架具有较好的可行性、安全性和更优的经济性。

英文摘要:

The phenomenon of excessive short-circuit current seriously hinders the formulation of power system operation modes. The current decision to limit flow is based on the worst-case scenario predicted recently, ensuring safety at the cost of economy. However, with the large-scale integration of new energy, its uncertainty may lead to the worst-case scenario being a very low probability scenario that is far from normal. Based on this, making flow limiting decisions will seriously affect economic efficiency. If a high probability scenario is processed in advance and a very low probability scenario is urgently processed within the day without any omissions, a more economical flow limiting strategy can be developed. To this end, this paper proposes an optimization framework for two-stage day-ahead and intra-day flow limiting measures based on scenario probability. The day-ahead and intra-day processing scenarios are divided based on the principle of minimizing the expected comprehensive cost from day-ahead to intra-day, and develop day-ahead flow limiting measures; A real-time prediction method for short-circuit current based on data-physical joint drive is proposed for emergency current limiting during the day, which can predict and perform emergency current limiting in real time to discover and handle scenarios with minimal probability of exceeding the limit. The simulation results show that the proposed two-stage optimization framework has good feasibility, security, and better economy.

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