王志敏,陈雯,苏步芸,董楠,刘娟,陈宇.双碳背景下商业建筑空调负荷预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2026,63(5):30-37. WANG Zhimin,CHEN Wen,SU Buyun,DONG Nan,LIU Juan,CHEN Yu.A Method for Predicting Air Conditioning Load in Commercial Buildings Under the Dual Carbon Background[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2026,63(5):30-37.
双碳背景下商业建筑空调负荷预测方法
A Method for Predicting Air Conditioning Load in Commercial Buildings Under the Dual Carbon Background
Energy exchange occurs between commercial buildings and external environment as well as internal activities. External disturbance factors such as solar radiation and outdoor temperature and internal disturbance factors such as personnel activities and equipment operation will affect the thermal performance of buildings, which together act on the air conditioning system and increase the difficulty of prediction. Therefore, a method for predicting air-conditioning load of commercial buildings under dual-carbon background is proposed. The importance of each load factor to the prediction was calculated by Morris sensitivity analysis method, and external and internal disturbance loads of air conditioning loads in commercial buildings were analyzed and calculated, which were used as the training data set of LSSVM model and XGBoost model to fully consider internal and external disturbance factors and combine two different models to complete load prediction under the dual-carbon background. Improve the accuracy of air conditioning load forecasting. The experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the air conditioning load, and the highest MAPE is only 0.026.
