考虑冰灾天气下不确定性的新型电力系统预防性优化调度方法

刘文霞; 苑子俊; 娄素华; 程浩忠; 何向刚

刘文霞,苑子俊,娄素华,程浩忠,何向刚.考虑冰灾天气下不确定性的新型电力系统预防性优化调度方法[J].电测与仪表,2026,63(9):1-11.
Liu Wenxia,Yuan Zijun,Lou Suhua,Cheng Haozhong,He Xianggang.Preventive optimal dispatching method of novel power system considering uncertainties under ice disaster weather[J].Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation,2026,63(9):1-11.

考虑冰灾天气下不确定性的新型电力系统预防性优化调度方法

Preventive optimal dispatching method of novel power system considering uncertainties under ice disaster weather

DOI：10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2026.09.001

中文关键词: 新型电力系统冰灾天气优化调度分布鲁棒线路恢复

英文关键词:novel power system, ice disaster weather, optimal dispatching, distributionally robust, line restoration

基金项目:南方电网有限责任公司科技项目（No. 067600KK52222008）

作者中文名	作者英文名	单位
刘文霞	Liu Wenxia	贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心
苑子俊	Yuan Zijun	上海交通大学
娄素华	Lou Suhua	华中科技大学
程浩忠	Cheng Haozhong	上海交通大学
何向刚	He Xianggang	贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心

摘要点击次数: 72

中文摘要:

冰灾天气时空过程的多变性对新型电力系统制定预防性优化调度方案提出了重大挑战，亟需在日前预防性调度中考虑冰灾天气下不确定性影响。针对冰灾天气中输电线路故障可能及可再生能源出力变化，文中提出计及输电线路故障率不确定性及风电-光伏-水电预测偏差不确定性的预防性分布鲁棒优化调度方法。文中考虑冰灾天气时空物理过程，构建冰灾天气下输电线路故障率模型。考虑冰灾天气下输电线路的故障率不确定性，构建输电线路故障模糊集和风-光-水预测偏差不确定集。基于模糊集构建两阶段分布鲁棒优化调度模型，优化机组开停机方式及线路维修调度方式，基于列-约束生成算法求解最恶劣输电线路故障率及最恶劣风-光-水预测偏差下的调度方案，通过IEEE RTS-24节点系统验证了所提调度模型和求解方法的有效性。

英文摘要:

The variable spatial-temporal process of ice disaster weather presents a significant challenge for developing preventive optimal dispatching schemes in novel power system, necessitating the incorporation of its uncertain influence into day-ahead preventive dispatching. In view of the potential for transmission line failure and the intermittent nature of renewable power output during ice disaster weather conditions, this paper proposes a distributionally robust preventive unit commitment method that incorporates uncertainties in both the failure rate of transmission lines and the prediction deviation of wind power, photovoltaic power as well as hydropower. The failure rate model of transmission lines under ice disaster weather is constructed by considering the spatial-temporal physical processes involved. Considering the uncertainty of transmission line failure rate under ice disaster weather, an ambiguity set for transmission line failure status and an uncertainty set for prediction deviations of wind-solar-hydro are constructed.A two-stage distributionally robust optimal dispatching model is constructed based on the ambiguity set, aiming to optimize the unit start-up/shut-down mode and line maintenance scheduling mode. And a column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm is employed to solve the optimal dispatching model considering the worst transmission line failure rate and wind-solar-water prediction deviation.The IEEE RTS-24 node system is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method of the proposed preventive dispatching model and solution method.

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