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文章摘要
基于多元线性回归分析的计量资产寿命测与评价方法研究
Study the Lifetime Prediction and Evaluation of Metrological Properties base on the Multiple Factor Line Regression Method
Received:January 15, 2014  Revised:January 15, 2014
DOI:
中文关键词: 多元线性回归  计量资产  寿命预测  状态等级
英文关键词: multiple linear regression  metering assets  lifetime prediction  health level  
基金项目:国家社科基金重大招标项目(12 ZD207)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
XU Qing Jiangsu Electric Power Research Institute ellar_shen@sina.com 
SHEN Qiu-ying* Jiangsu Electric Power Research Institute ellar_shen@sina.com 
GUO Xing-xin Jiangsu Electric Power Research Institute  
WANG Wen-ping School of Economics and Management,Southeast University  
JIN Ping Jiangsu Electric Power Research Institute  
GONG Dan Jiangsu Electric Power Research Institute  
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中文摘要:
      在分析计量资产全寿命周期管理的基础上,对计量资产的寿命进行预测,对状态等级进行评价。首先,分析各因素对计量资产寿命的影响,提出了计量资产寿命标杆值的概念;然后,利用主成分分析法消除多元共线性现象,在此基础上采用多元线性回归法对计量资产进行寿命预测;最后,通过将计量资产寿命预测值与标杆值相比较得出计量资产状态等级。实证结果表明,该方法可以有效地对计量资产寿命进行预测和状态等级进行评价。
英文摘要:
      Starting with analyzing characteristics of the management for life cycle of metering properties, this paper aims to lifetime prediction and healthy level evaluation. First, analyze every reasonable and potential elements for all the effect on metering assets’ lifetime, and define the clear concept of benchmark values of metering assets’ lifetime. Then, using the principal component analysis to eliminate the phenomenon of multiple co-linearity and based on these, we predict the metering asset’s lifetime with the theory of multiple factor line regression methods. Finally, comparing the predicted lifetime with the benchmark value, the status health level of metering asset can be got. In the exam of the realistic cases, this method works quite effective for both metering assets’ lifetime prediction and status level evaluation.
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