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文章摘要
基于Copula方法的风光互补发电系统相关性模型研究
Correlation Model Research in the Wind/Solar Hybrid Generation System based on Copula Function
Received:May 18, 2014  Revised:May 18, 2014
DOI:
中文关键词: 风速光照相关性  核密度估计  阿基米德Copula函数
英文关键词: correlation  of wind  speed and  illumination, kernel  density estimation, Archimedes  Copula function
基金项目:贵州省科技厅基金资助项目黔科合J字[2011]2060号
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
ZHANG Pan-pan Institute of Electrical Engineering of Guizhou University 413037362@qq.com 
XIONG Wei* Institute of Electrical Engineering of Guizhou University 420034562@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      在风光互补发电系统中需考虑风速和光照的相关性,二者联合分布函数的建立对减少配电网可靠性评估的偏差有着重要意义。文中以呼和浩特地区一年间风速和光照的最大值为样本,采用核密度估计得到风速和光照的累积分布函数,通过三种阿基米德Copula函数分别构造二者的二元联合分布函数解析式。在得到风速和光照的边缘分布后,该方法只需检验函数中参数 是否满足要求就可方便地得到二元联合分布函数具体表达式,避免了常规数学方法建模过程中的繁琐计算,且该方法还可以最小的拟合误差选择出最优的Copula函数。
英文摘要:
      The correlation of wind speed and illumination should be considered in the Wind/Solar Hybrid Generation System. The establishment of the joint distribution function has important sign ificance to reducing the deviation of distribution network reliability evaluation.This paper uses th e maximum wind speed and illumination in a year in Hohhot area as sample, and uses kernel dens ity estimation to get the cumulative distribution function of wind speed and illumination ,then st ructures the binary joint distribution function through three Archimedes Copula function. After ge tting the edge distribution of the wind speed and illumination distribution , this method can easily gets specific binary joint distribution function expression only throughing test the parameter of fu nction whether meets to the requirements.Besides ,this method avoids complicated calculation pr ocess in the conventional mathematical modeling method, and it also chooses the optimal copula function based on the minimum fitting error.
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