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文章摘要
灰色-马尔可夫链统计组合模型在光伏发电功率短期预测中的应用
The Application of Gray - Markov Chain Statistical Combination Model on Photovoltaic Power Short-term Forecasting
Received:September 17, 2014  Revised:October 31, 2014
DOI:
中文关键词: 光伏发电功率预测  灰色模型  马尔科夫链模型  短期预测
英文关键词: photovoltaic power prediction  grey model  Markov chain  short-term forecasting
基金项目:河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
liyanbin Zhongyuan University of Technology liyanbin@189.cn 
zhangjiuju* Zhengzhou Electric Power Technology College 347235139@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      光伏系统输出功率具有随机性和波动性的特点,光伏系统并网以后可能引起运行和可靠性问题。提前对光伏发电功率进行准确预测有利于电力部门及时调度和保证电能质量,从而保证电网的安全运行。在分析灰色预测模型局限性的基础上,将灰色-马尔可夫链组合预测模型应用到光伏功率短期预测中,并阐述了其建模原理。通过对灰色模型拟合值的相对残差序列进行分析及建立马尔可夫链状态转移概率矩阵,得出灰色-马尔可夫链预测模型。通实际算例分析,证验了所提组合模型的准确性和简便性。#$NL关键词: 光伏发电功率预测;灰色模型;马尔科夫链模型;短期预测
英文摘要:
      Operational and reliability problems may arise after photovoltaic system grid integration,due to PV power’s characteristics, such as volatility and randomness.Predicting the photovoltaic power accurately in advance will benefit the power sector to adjust the scheduling plan timely to ensure power quality, and then ensure the grid operate safely. Based on the analysis of the limitations of the gray forecasting model, the Gray - Markov chain combination forecasting model was applied to predict the short-term photovoltaic power ,and described its modeling principles. Gray - Markov chain model can be drawn through analyzing the relative residuals of the fitted values ??of the gray model and establishing the state transition probability matrix. Through analyzing the practical examples, verified the accuracy and simplicity of the proposed combination model. #$NLKeywords: photovoltaic power prediction; grey model; Markov chain; short-term forecasting
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