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文章摘要
一种风电功率简易预测模型
A Simple Model for Wind Power Forecasting
Received:May 19, 2015  Revised:May 19, 2015
DOI:
中文关键词: 风电预测  滑动平均  自回归滑动平均  极限学习机
英文关键词: wind power forecast  rolling averages  ARMA  ELM
基金项目:国网甘肃省电力公司科技项目
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Li Le* Electric and Information School of Sichuan University sculile@163.com 
Liu Tianqi Electric and Information School of Sichuan University tqliu@sohu.com 
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中文摘要:
      风电功率预测逐步成为研究热点,为提高预测精度,预测模型日趋复杂化。本文通过对风电出力特性的研究,针对风电功率超短期预测问题,提出一种简易预测模型。首先利用滑动平均法将风电功率简单分离成趋势分量和波动分量,并根据两类分量的变化特征分别建立自回归滑动平均模型和极限学习机模型进行预测。算例结果表明该模型能较好的拟合风电出力序列变化情况,具有良好的应用前景。
英文摘要:
      Wind power forecasting becomes a research hotspot gradually. To improve accuracy of forecast, the model becomes increasingly complex. This paper present a simple model for ultra -short -term wind forecasting by researching the wind power characteristics .Firstly, The time series of wind power is decomposed into trend component and fluctuant components. Considering different characteristics of each component, ARMA and ELM model is built individually. Simulation results show that this model is preferably fitting for the time series of wind power and has the good application prospect.
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