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文章摘要
交流电弧炉供电网波动电压超短期混沌预测方法
Chaotic Prediction of Fluctuant Voltage Time Series Acquired From EAF Power Supply Grid
Received:September 12, 2016  Revised:September 12, 2016
DOI:
中文关键词: 交流电弧炉  电压时间序列  混沌预测  最大Lyapunov指数  加权一阶局域预测法
英文关键词: AC EAF, voltage time series, chaotic  prediction, maximum Lyapunov exponent, local weighted one-rank prediction method
基金项目:上海市自然科学基金(15ZR1418000);上海绿色能源并网工程技术研究中心(13DZ2251900)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Wang Yufei School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electrical Power,Shanghai wangyufei@shiep.edu.cn 
Sun Lu* School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electrical Power,Shanghai super_sunlu@163.com 
Zhang Jianyun State Grid Yiwu power supply company super_sunlu@163.com 
Xue Hua School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electrical Power,Shanghai xuehua@shiep.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      对交流电弧炉供电网电压时间序列进行特性分析并进行预测是解决电弧炉引起闪变问题的前提。重构电压有效值时间序列相空间,采用互信息法和Cao氏法确定最佳延迟时间和嵌入维数,计算最大Lyapunov指数,证明了供电网波动电压具有混沌特性。运用最大Lyapunov指数法和加权一阶局域预测法对电压时间序列进行超短期预测,结果表明,混沌预测能够较好地反映交流电弧炉供电网电压有效值时间序列的变化趋势,超短期预测精度高,且加权一阶局域预测法比最大Lyapunov指数法的预测精度更高,适合作为电压有效值时间序列的预测方法。
英文摘要:
      In order to solve the problem of flicker produced by EAF operation, it is a prerequisite to analyze the characteristics of voltage time series of EAF power supply grid and to conduct voltage prediction. The phase space of voltage time series is firstly reconstructed, the optimal delayed time and embedding dimension are determined using mutual information method and Cao"s method, and the maximum Lyapunov exponent is calculated, it is proved that the fluctuation voltage of the power supply grid has chaotic characteristics. Using the largest Lyapunov exponent method and weighted first-order local method to predicte the voltage in ultra short term. The results show that the chaotic prediction can reflect the EAF power supply grid voltage fluctuating trend, the ultra short term forecast precision is high, the latter one is better. Therefore, the weighted first-order local method is more suitable for predicting the fluctuant voltage of EAF power supply grid.
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