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文章摘要
基于模糊聚类与随机森林的短期负荷预测
Short-time load forecasting based on fuzzy clustering and random forest
Received:January 04, 2017  Revised:January 04, 2017
DOI:
中文关键词: 模糊聚类  随机森林  数据挖掘  短期负荷预测
英文关键词: fuzzy clustering, random forest, data mining, short-term load forecasting
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
huangqingping* North China Electric Power University qingping_huang@ncepu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      针对传统数据挖掘算法(神经网络和支持向量机)进行短期负荷预测容易陷入局部最优,模型难以确定等问题,提出一种模糊聚类技术与随机森林回归算法结合的短期负荷预测方法。基于模糊聚类技术选取相似日的方法,考虑负荷的周期性变化特征,利用样本输入进行样本聚类,选取同类数据作训练样本,建立随机森林负荷预测模型。实例中负荷数据采用安徽省某地的历史负荷,用上述方法对该地区的日24小时负荷进行预测,并与传统的支持向量机和BP神经网络方法进行比较,验证了该方法的有效性。
英文摘要:
      Typical data mining methods(ANN and SVM) are applied in short-term load forecasting widely. Howere, These methods have some deficiences including being trapped in local optimization easily and ensure the model hardly and so on. In order to overcome shortcomings, A method of combination of fuzzy clustering and random forest(RF) for load forcasting is proposed in this paper. On the other hand, various feature of the periodical load and the similarity of input samples are considered in the proposed method. Input samples are clustered depending on similarity. Then load forecasting model is established based on random forest algorithm and similar data are selected as training samples. The final results rely on the historical loads in Anhui for hourly load forcasting. And the results show that the proposed method is better than traditional support vector machine and BP neural network.
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