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文章摘要
基于卷积的风速和负荷相关性分类处理的概率潮流计算
Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation with Classified Consideration of Wind Speed Correlation and Load Correlation Based on the Convolution Method
Received:March 23, 2018  Revised:May 15, 2018
DOI:
中文关键词: 负荷相关性  风速相关性  蒙特卡罗法  卷积  概率潮流
英文关键词: Load correlation  wind speed correlation  Monte Carlo simulation  convolution  probabilistic load flow
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目 (2017YFB0903300):基于电力电子变压器的交直流混合可再生能源技术研究
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
HUANG Qiang* State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power CO.,LTD.,Research Institute,Jiangsu Province Nanjing 211103 383521165@qq.com 
ZHANG Liu-dong State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power CO.,LTD.,Research Institute,Jiangsu Province Nanjing 211103 zldon_1987@126.com 
CHEN Bing State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power CO.,LTD.,Research Institute,Jiangsu Province Nanjing 211103 cbsure@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      含相关性风电的电力系统概率潮流算法需具备同时处理风速相关性和负荷相关性的能力。现有的概率潮流算法一般采用蒙特卡罗方法统一处理两类相关性,但该算法计算量较大,且忽视了风速和负荷在概率分布特性上的差异。为此,本文提出风速相关性和负荷相关性分类处理的概率潮流算法。该算法延用蒙特卡罗法计算相关风电场总出力的概率密度曲线,并利用负荷一般呈正态分布的特性,采用解析法快速求取总负荷的正态分布函数,最后将两类结果进行卷积计算获得支路潮流的概率密度函数。由于在处理具有相关性负荷时避免了负荷样本的生成与采样,该算法可以提高概率潮流的计算效率。以含多风电场的IEEE RTS-96系统和IEEE 118系统为算例,与蒙特卡罗法、点估计法及累积量法进行比较,验证了本文方法的有效性和优越性。
英文摘要:
      With large-scale integration of wind farms with wind speed correlation into the bulk power system, it is necessary to take account of both the wind speed correlation and the load correlation in the probabilistic load flow (PLF) calculation. The existing PLF methods usually utilize the Monte Carlo simulation to deal with these two kinds of correlation. But this algorithm needs a large amount of computation and it neglects the difference of wind speed and load in probability distribution. In this paper, a procedure is established for calculating PLF based on the classified consideration of wind speed correlation and load correlation. The MC simulation combined with Latin hypercube sampling is used to acquire the probability density function of total wind power with correlations. An analytical method is used to get the normal distribution function of total loads as load always follows normal distribution. Then the convolution method is used to obtain the final result. As the generation of load samples is avoided, the proposed method can improve the PLF calculation efficiency. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method is verified via the comparative tests on the IEEE RTS-96 system and the IEEE 118 system.
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