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文章摘要
考虑响应行为不确定性的电动汽车充电负荷预测研究
The Research on the Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting Based on the Response Behavior of Uncertainty
Received:August 22, 2018  Revised:August 22, 2018
DOI：
中文关键词: 电动汽车  充电负荷预测  改进蒙特卡罗法  POT除串法
英文关键词: 
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Dong Gang State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company xiongyi2010@qq.com 
zhanghuadong State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company xiongyi2010@qq.com 
王振祥 The Bureau of electrical and Mechanical Engineering xiongyi2010@qq.com 
xiongyi* School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University xiongyi2010@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      电动汽车充电负荷预测是研究电动汽车对电网规划的重要前提。本文通过对蒙特卡罗模拟进行改进分析后建立了基于响应行为不确定性的电动汽车充电负荷预测模型。首先，对充电行为不确定性因素进行分析，结合不同渗透率下的具体情况进行充电负荷随机参数调整。然后，结合随机参数及电动汽车保有量及动力电池参数等，分析了蒙特卡罗模拟算法误差产生原因，从而提出了结合POT除串法的改进蒙特卡罗法的充电负荷预测模型，同时改进了蒙特卡洛法的寻优路径以大幅度提高计算速度。最后，以山东省济南市为例，对充电负荷特征及其对配电网的影响进行了两种方法的对比分析。预测结果说明，改进后的蒙特卡罗方法对充电负荷预测研究有较高的预测准确性和较强的工程实用性。
英文摘要:
      
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