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文章摘要
模糊聚类-Elman神经网络短期光伏发电预测模型
Short-term photovoltaic power generation prediction model based on fuzzy clustering-Elman neural network
Received:April 04, 2019
Revised:May 28, 2019
DOI：
10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2020.12.008
中文关键词
:
孤立森林
模糊C均值
Elman
BP
英文关键词
:
Isolation Forest
Fuzzy C Means
Elman
BP
基金项目
:
国家自然科学基金项目（ 51507001）
Author Name
Affiliation
E-mail
Zhang Jinjin
*
Engineering Research Center of Power Quality
,
Ministry of Education
,
Anhui University
1095610420@qq.com
Zhang Qian
Engineering Research Center of Power Quality
,
Ministry of Education
,
Anhui University
qianzh@ahu.edu.cn
Ma Yuan
Engineering Research Center of Power Quality
,
Ministry of Education
,
Anhui University
664328543@qq.com
Ma Jinhui
State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co
,
Ltd
hfmajh@163.com
Ding Jinjin
State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co
,
Ltd Electric Power Research Institute
,
Ltd
djinjin123@126.com
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中文摘要
:
光伏发电功率预测是电网安全稳定运行的基础,从数据挖掘的角度提升光伏发电功率预测精度。本文提出基于孤立森林、模糊C均值和Elman的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。首先,根据预测日选择相似日数据并按天气分类作为训练样本；其次,采用孤立森林清洗训练样本中的异常部分；接着,应用模糊C均值对相似日以及待预测日的气象数据进行聚类分析。最后,结合Elman神经网络算法,形成含孤立森林数据清洗的模糊聚类-Elman神经网络的预测模型,对光伏出力进行精确预测。根据某地市现场实测数据进行实验仿真,预测结果分别与传统Elman和BP模型的预测结果进行对比,可以获得更高的预测精度。
英文摘要
:
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