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文章摘要
Beta分布在风电预测误差模型中的适用性
Applicability of Beta distribution on wind power forecast error modeling
Received:June 12, 2019  Revised:June 12, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2020.11.006
中文关键词: 风电功率预测  条件误差  分组数量  Beta分布  适用性研究
英文关键词: wind  power forecast, condition  error, partition  numbers, Beta  distribution, applicability  study
基金项目:国家自然基金项目(51606068);中央高校基本科研专项资金(2017MS114)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Yang Hong* School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding yhncepubd@163.com 
Yan Yujie School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding yanyujie_ncepu@163.com 
Wang Yu School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding wangyu_ncepu@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      Beta分布凭借自身的特征优势,已经成为建立风电功率预测条件误差的主要模型。当前,大多数有关Beta分布建模的研究都集中在储能规划和经济调度方面,而针对复杂多变的风电功率预测条件误差,研究Beta分布适用性影响因素的成果较少。为了填补这方面的不足,论文做了如下工作:首先研究了Beta分布的参数和形态特征;然后根据这些特征给出了条件误差的非标准定义形式、异常数据的四分位区间处理方法,以及评估Beta分布适用性指标和步骤;最后针对不同容量的实际功率数据,完成了Beta分布在分组数量、异常点检测、参数估计方法、功率特征等关键因素影响下的适用性仿真;并根据仿真结果总结了Beta适用性的变化规律和一些经验准则。
英文摘要:
      Beta distribution has become the main model to establish Wind Power Forecast Conditional Error (WPFCE) by its own characteristics. At present, most of the research results on Beta distribution modeling are focused on energy storage planning and economic dispatch. Facing the complexity and variability of WPFCE, there are few studies on the factors affecting the applicability of Beta distribution. In order to fill the shortcomings, the following work has been done in this paper. Firstly, the parameters and morphological characteristics of Beta distribution have been studied. Then paper gives the non-standard definition of conditional errors, the interquartile range method of outliers, and the indicators and steps for assessing the applicability of Beta distribution based on these characteristics. Finally, according to the actual power data of different capacities, the applicability simulation of Beta distribution under the influence of key factors such as partition numbers, outliers detection, estimation methods and power characteristics is completed, and the changing rules of Beta applicability and some empirical criteria are summarized according to the simulation results.
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