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文章摘要
基于提升小波和改进PSO-Elman神经网络的短期负荷预测
Short-term load forecasting based on lifting wavelet and improved PSO-Elman neural network
Received:July 16, 2019  Revised:July 16, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2020.21.017
中文关键词: 负荷预测  提升小波  Elman神经网络  改进粒子群算法  蚁群算法  混沌理论
英文关键词: load forecasting, lifting wavelet, Elman neural network, improved particle swarm optimization, ant colony algorithm, chaos theory
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目( 2017YFB0902800)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Zou Hao School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology zouhao975367447@163.com 
Dou Zhenhai* School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology douzhenhai1105@126.com 
Zhang Bo School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology zhangbo1708@163.com 
Zhu Yaling School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology zhuyalingdd@163.com 
Liao Qingling School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology qinglingnd@163.com 
Sun Kai School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology yuke12138@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      为了提高电力负荷预测的精度,提出基于提升小波和改进PSO-Elman神经网络的短期负荷预测模型。首先,针对负荷的波动性和趋势性,将提升小波算法用于分解原始负荷数据并提取其主要特征,然后,在蚁群算法改进粒子群算法(GPSO)中,采用混沌理论,对部分适应度值较差的粒子进行混沌扰动,提出CGPSO算法,改善细致搜索的准确性,并提高全局搜索能力,将CGPSO算法用于Elman神经网络初始参数优化,最后建立负荷预测模型。本文采用我国北方某地区的实际数据进行仿真,实验结果表明,该方法的预测精度相比于传统ENN方法提高了2.3626%。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, a short-term load forecasting model based on lifting wavelet and improved PSO-Elman neural network is proposed. Firstly, aiming at the fluctuation and trend of load, the lifting wavelet algorithm is used to decompose the original load data and extract its main features. Then, in the improved particle swarm optimization (GPSO) algorithm of ant colony algorithm, chaos theory is used to disturb some particles with poor fitness. The CGPSO algorithm is proposed to improve meticulousness. The accuracy of the search and the ability of global search are improved. The CGPSO algorithm is used to optimize the initial parameters of Elman neural network. Finally, the load forecasting model is established. In this paper, the actual data of a certain area in northern China are used to simulate. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of this method is 2.362 6% higher than that of the traditional ENN method.
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