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文章摘要
基于改进LS-SVM的短期电力负荷预测方法研究
Research on short-term power load forecasting method based on improved LS-SVM
Received:July 19, 2019  Revised:August 01, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2021.05.026
中文关键词: 电力负荷  粒子群优化  短期负荷  最小二乘支持向量机  预测模型
英文关键词: power load, PSO, short-term load, LS-SVM, prediction model
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Liu Yan* Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100045, China 472322716@qq.com 
Peng Xinxia Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100045, China liuyan198907@qq.com 
Zheng Sida Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100045, China liuyan198907@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      针对电力负荷随机性强、稳定性差、预测精度不理想等问题,提出了一种基于粒子群优化PSO和最小二乘支持向量机LS-SVM的短期负荷预测方法。模型的输入因子是负荷数据和气象信息等。粒子群优化算法用于实现支持向量机参数的自动优化,建立了基于粒子群优化的最小二乘支持向量机短期负荷预测模型。通过仿真验证了改进前后预测模型的准确性和有效性,结果表明,改进的预测方法具有收敛性好、预测精度高、训练速度快的优点。本研究为我国短期负荷预测方法的发展提供了参考和借鉴。
英文摘要:
      Aiming at the problems of strong randomness, poor stability and unsatisfactory forecasting accuracy of power load, a short-term power load forecasting method combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is proposed in this paper. The input factors of the model are load data and meteorological information. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted to realize the automatic optimization of the parameter of the support vector machine, short-term load forecasting model of the least squares support vector machine based on particle swarm optimization is established. The accuracy and validity of the improved prediction model are verified by simulation, the results show that the improved prediction method brings benefits to convergence, prediction accuracy and training speed. This study provides a reference for the development of short-term load forecasting methods in China.
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