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文章摘要
基于综合能源的区域用能可靠性评估研究
Research on Reliability Assessment of regional energy Based on Integrated Energy
Received:December 10, 2019  Revised:December 30, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2021.10.002
中文关键词: 综合能源  分布式电源  马尔可夫模型  可靠性  评估
英文关键词: integration energy  distribution generation  Markov model  reliability  evaluation
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
hanjun State Grid Jiangsu Economic Research Institute hjchallenge@126.com 
huangjunhui State Grid Jiangsu Economic Research Institute liang_fang1997@163.com 
fangliang* Shanghai Maritime University liang_fang1997@163.com 
songtianli Southeast University liang_fang1997@163.com 
lihu State Grid Jiangsu Economic Research Institute liang_fang1997@163.com 
chengaofei State Grid Jiangsu Economic Research Institute liang_fang1997@163.com 
wugen State Grid Jiangsu Economic Research Institute liang_fang1997@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      综合能源系统的区域用能可靠性评估是保障其安全可靠运行的重要基础。本文提出了一种基于马尔可夫模型多组件的综合能源可靠性评估方法。针对综合能源系统出现大量组件问题,建立基于马尔可夫模型综合能源供能子系统状态随机模型,对RBTS-Bus2系统模型进行可靠性评估,计算其可靠性指标。根据该评估方法,可以确定光伏、风力、储能、冷热电联供和市电、用户的负载等在综合能源系统中需求比重。案例分析结果表明,综合能源供应体系能有效提升系统的可靠性,但也存在边界效应问题,有待进一步研究解决。
英文摘要:
      The assessment reliability of integrated energy systems of regional energy is an important basis for ensuring its safe and reliable operation. In this paper, a reliability assessment method of multi-component integrated energy based on Markov model is proposed. Aiming at a large number of component problems in integrated energy systems, a stochastic model based on Markov model integrated energy-energy subsystem is established. The reliability of the RBTS-Bus2 system model was evaluated and its reliability index was calculated. According to this evaluation method, it is possible to determine the proportion of demand in integrated energy systems such as photovoltaic, wind, energy storage, combined cooling heating and power and main supply, and user load. The case study shows that the integrated energy supply system can effectively improve the reliability of the system, but there are also border effect problems, which need to be further studied and solved.
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