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文章摘要
基于智能电能表的智慧城市峰值负荷概率估计
Peak Load Probability Estimation of Smart City Based on Smart Meter
Received:January 02, 2020
Revised:February 02, 2020
DOI：
10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2021.09.025
中文关键词
:
同步峰值需求，配电网规划，概率估计，R-vine copulas，智能电表
英文关键词
:
基金项目
:
Author Name
Affiliation
E-mail
liuying
North hebei electric power research institute
,
state grid
428399914@qq.com
Liuyan
*
North hebei electric power research institute
,
state grid
plliuyan1989@163.com
Yankai
State grid hebei electric power co.
,
LTD
yankai136@163.com
Yuezhenyu
State grid hebei tangshan power supply co.
,
LTD.
yuezhenyu332@163.com
Pengxinxia
North hebei electric power research institute
,
state grid
pengxinxiaxia@163.com
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中文摘要
:
充足的变电站和馈线的容量规划主要取决于对未来高峰电力需求的准确估计。然而，传统的实时峰值需求估计是基于经验值进行度量，在多样性最大需求之后进行的，表示个体峰值消费水平和多居民需求多样性。针对智能城市智能电表的特点，提出了一种基于细粒度智能电表数据和用户社会人口统计数据的数据驱动的概率峰值用电量估算框架。特别是，在提出的方法中集成了四个主要阶段: 负荷建模和抽样，通过所提出的可变截断 R-vine 连接方法，基于相关性的客户分组，归一化最大多样化需求估计和新客户的概率峰值需求估计。利用平均绝对百分误差和弹球损失函数定量地证明了该方法在点估计值和概率结果上的优越性。
英文摘要
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