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文章摘要
基于ESMD-PE和ADBN的短期电力负荷预测
Short-term power load forecasting based on ESMD-PE and ADBN
Received:January 13, 2020  Revised:January 13, 2020
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2023.01.005
中文关键词: 短期负荷预测  ESMD  排列熵  深度信念网络  自适应学习率
英文关键词: short-term load forecasting, ESMD, permutation entropy, deep belief network, adaptive learning rate
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Wang Guojuan* School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China 898117389@qq.com 
Leng Jianwei School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China lengjianwei61101@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      为了改善短期电力负荷预测性能,提出了一种基于极点对称经验模式分解(ESMD)-排列熵(PE)和自适应深度信念网络(ADBN)的组合预测新方法。为了提高预测精度以及降低原始负荷序列复杂度简化预测模型输入,运用ESMD方法将原始负荷序列分解成为一系列复杂度互异的模态函数,运用排列熵计算各模态函数的熵值并对复杂度相近的模态进行重构得到新的子序列;在综合考虑各影响因素的基础上,对新序列分别构造不同的DBN预测模型,最后叠加预测结果;由于DBN模型中无监督训练阶段学习率通常采用全局统一的常数型参数,将自适应学习率引入到对比差度(CD)算法中,通过自动调整学习率改善模型的收敛速度,同时预测精度也有提高。通过算例分析,文章提出的ESMD-PE-ADBN模型的MAPE值与RMSE值分别为1.03%和90.91 MW,预测效果最佳。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the short-term power load forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting method based on pole symmetrical empirical mode decomposition (ESMD)-permutation entropy (PE) and adaptive deep belief network (ADBN) is proposed in this paper. In order to improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the complexity of the original load sequence and simplify the input of the prediction model, the ESMD method is first used to decompose the original load sequence into a series of modal functions of different complexity, and then, the permutation entropy is used to calculate the entropy value of each modal function and reconstruct modalities of similar complexity to obtain new subsequences; on the basis of comprehensive consideration of various influencing factors, this paper constructs different DBN prediction models for the new sequence, and finally, superimposes the prediction results; due to the unsupervised training stage in the DBN model, the learning rate usually adopts globally uniform constant parameters. The adaptive learning rate is introduced into the contrast difference (CD) algorithm. The convergence of the model is improved by automatically adjusting the learning rate, and the prediction accuracy is also improved. Through example analysis, the MAPE and RMSE values of the ESMD-PE-ADBN model proposed in the paper are 1.03% and 90.91 MW, respectively, and the prediction effect is the best.
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