文章以风-光-柴-储系统为研究对象，为了研究新能源出力不确定性对该系统的影响,提出了一种新能源出力复合预测模型。为提高风-光-柴-储系统运行的经济性、环保性和安全性，提出了考虑新能源出力不确定性的风-光-柴-储系统调度模型，并采用了带有Monte Carlo模拟的遗传算法对模型进行求解。文章采用了负荷缺失率(load loss rate, LLR)和置信概率对系统的安全性进行评价，并分析了其对系统调度结果的影响。仿真结果表明，文中所提出的考虑新能源出力不确定性的风-光-柴-储系统调度模型，可以降低新能源出力不确定性对系统的影响，且该方法可以有效地平衡系统的经济性和安全性。
英文摘要:
In order to study the influence of renewable energy output uncertainty on the system, taking the wind-solar-diesel-battery hybrid power generation system as the research object, a complex model for new energy output forecast is proposed in this paper. For purpose of improving the economy, environmental protection and safety of the system, a dispatching model of wind-solar-diesel-battery hybrid power generation system considering renewable energy uncertainty is proposed, which is solved by the genetic algorithm with Monte Carlo simulation. This paper adopts load loss rate (LLR) and confidence probability to evaluate the security of the system, and analyzes its impact on the system scheduling results. The simulation results show that the proposed dispatching model of wind-solar-diesel-battery hybrid power generation system considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output can reduce the impact of renewable energy output uncertainty on the system, and this method can balance the economy and security of the system effectively.