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文章摘要
基于广义回归模型的充电桩运行异常预测方法
Prediction of abnormal operation of charging pile based on generalized regression model
Received:November 15, 2021  Revised:December 01, 2021
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2024.11.024
中文关键词: 广义回归模型  充电桩  运行异常  异常预测
英文关键词: generalized regression model  charging pile  abnormal operation  abnormal prediction
基金项目:国家电网有限公司科技项目资助(52094021000Y)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Chen Jin* Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company eufoniuso@163.com 
Xie Hui Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company wtochinas@163.com 
Tang Shengfei Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company 1961467934@qq.com 
Zhen Haohan Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company zhenhaohan@126.com 
Zhou Jingjing Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company zhoujingjing0309@163.com 
Jin Jianjun Red Phase INC 540122241@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      针对现有充电桩运行异常预测方法存在预测误差大、置信度低的问题,提出基于广义回归模型的充电桩运行异常预测方法。划分充电桩的异常类型以及异常区域,设置异常类型特征作为判断设备运行异常的标准。根据充电桩的工作原理,收集其动态多维运行数据。分别从人为操作以及环境天气两个方面确定充电桩运行影响因素。构建充电桩的供应商评价模型,确定充电桩的初始质量。在考虑充电桩初始质量和影响因素的前提下,利用收集的运行数据,利用广义回归模型估算电力负荷、充电量等运行参数。最终经过与设置标准特征的比对,得出充电桩的运行异常预测结果。通过性能测试实验得出结论:在两种实验环境下,设计方法的电力负荷预测误差均低于0.5KW,置信度始终高于85%,且识别时间为24s。
英文摘要:
      Aiming at the problems of large prediction errors and low confidence in the existing abnormal operation prediction methods of charging piles, a generalized regression model-based method for predicting abnormal operation of charging piles is proposed. Divide the abnormal type and abnormal area of the charging pile, and set the abnormal type characteristics as the standard for judging the abnormal operation of the equipment. According to the working principle of the charging pile, collect its dynamic multi-dimensional operating data. The factors affecting the operation of the charging pile are determined from two aspects: human operation and environmental weather. Construct a supplier evaluation model for charging piles to determine the initial quality of charging piles. Under the premise of considering the initial quality and influencing factors of the charging pile, use the collected operating data and use the generalized regression model to estimate the operating parameters such as power load and charging capacity. Finally, after comparing with the set standard features, the abnormal operation prediction result of the charging pile is obtained. Through the performance test experiment, it is concluded that in the two experimental environments, the power load forecast error of the design method is less than 0.5KW, the confidence is always higher than 85%, and the recognition time is 24s.
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