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文章摘要
考虑用户有限理性行为的电动汽车充电需求分析
Electric vehicle charging demand analysis considering bounded rational behavior of users
Received:March 28, 2022  Revised:April 13, 2022
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.02.019
中文关键词: 前景理论  有限理性行为  出行不确定性  风险偏好  充电需求分析
英文关键词: prospect theory, bounded rational behavior, travel uncertainty, risk appetite, charging demand analysis
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51977127)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
LI Xinran* School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power lixinran7@163.com 
LI Xiaolu School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power lixinran7@163.com 
LU Yiming State Grid Shanghai Energy Interconnection Research Institute luyiming@epri.sgcc.com.cn 
LIU Jinsong Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company liujinsong1888@126.com 
LIN Shunfu School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power shunfulin@shiep.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      随着电动汽车的规模化增长,电动汽车充电需求的波动会给电网的安全经济运行带来巨大挑战。而电动汽车用户的出行不确定性以及风险偏好差异使得用户存在有限理性,导致电动汽车的充电需求具有不确定性。文章基于前景理论的风险型多属性决策方法,对电动汽车用户有限理性下的出行路径选择行为展开研究。考虑了电动汽车出行多属性决策的三种不确定性影响因素,分析了区间数、清晰数、三角模糊数三类属性参考点与风险偏好系数的关联关系,建立变系数的风险型多属性电动汽车出行决策模型,形成基于各路径综合前景值的出行决策方案。基于连续平均法对区域内电动汽车的交通流量进行动态分配与更新,建立基于综合前景值的电动汽车充电需求模型,分析电动汽车用户的有限理性行为对电动汽车日充电需求的影响,并在Nguyen-Dupius网络中加以验证。
英文摘要:
      With the large-scale growth of electric vehicles, the fluctuation of electric vehicle charging demand will bring great challenges to the safe and economic operation of power grid. However, the travel uncertainty and the difference in risk appetite of electric vehicle users make users have bounded rationality, which leads to the uncertainty of charging demand of electric vehicles. Based on the risk multi-attribute decision-making method of prospect theory, the travel route selection behavior of electric vehicle users under bounded rationality is studied. Three uncertain influencing factors for multi-attribute decision-making of electric vehicle travel are considered, analyzes the three types of interval number, the number of clear, the triangular fuzzy number attribute reference points and risk appetite coefficient correlation, establishes the electric vehicle travel decision-making model of risk type multi-attribute of variable coefficient, and the travel decision-making plan is formed based on the path synthesis prospect value. Based on the continuous average method, the traffic flow of electric vehicles in the region is dynamically allocated and updated, and the electric vehicle charging demand model based on the comprehensive prospect value is established to analyze the influence of the limited rational behavior of electric vehicle users on the daily charging demand of electric vehicles. It is verified in Nguyen-Dupius network.
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