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文章摘要
基于风速波动特性划分的短期风电功率预测
Short-term forecast of wind power based on the division of wind speed fluctuation characteristics
Received:July 23, 2022  Revised:August 16, 2022
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.05.012
中文关键词: 风电功率预测  饥饿博弈搜索  门控循环单元  动态时间规整  风速波动特性
英文关键词: wind power prediction, hunger games search, gated recurrent unit, dynamic time warping, wind speed fluctuation characteristic
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(62163034);
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Qiao Titang School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University 2958429831@qq.com 
Xie Lirong* School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University 541391018@qq.com 
Ye Jiahao School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University 2985604054@qq.com 
Gao Yang School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University 1152189272@qq.com 
Dai Bing School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University 1441505002@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      为解决风速剧烈变化导致风电功率难以准确预测的问题,提出一种基于风速波动特性划分的短期风电功率预测方法。文中通过设定风速波动阈值将历史数据集中的大波动序列划分为上升风、波动风、下降风三个阶段,动态时间归整算法挖掘历史数据中的波动风相似数据,结合相应历史风电功率构建训练样本数据集,利用饥饿博弈搜索算法优化门控循环单元神经网络的超参数,建立三种波动阶段的组合预测模型,将不同风速波动过程的风电功率预测值在时序上进行重新组合,得到短期风电功率预测结果。采用新疆风电场实际数据进行仿真验证,实验结果表明文中所提方法能够提高预测精度和泛化能力。
英文摘要:
      In order to solve the problem that the wind power is difficult to predict accurately due to the drastic change of wind speed, a short-term wind power prediction method based on the division of wind speed fluctuation characteristics is proposed. By setting the wind speed fluctuation threshold, the large fluctuation sequence in the historical data set is divided into three stages, including rising wind, fluctuating wind and descending wind. The dynamic time warping algorithm is used to mine the fluctuating wind similar data in the historical data, and a training sample data set is constructed combining with the corresponding historical wind power; a hunger game search algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the gated recurrent unit neural network, and a combined prediction model for three fluctuation stages is established. The wind power prediction values of different wind speed fluctuation processes are recombined in time series to obtain short-term wind power prediction results. The actual data of Xinjiang wind farm is used for simulation verification. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the prediction accuracy and generalization ability.
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