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文章摘要
基于Pair Copula的多风电场风险约束随机经济调度
Risk constrained stochastic economic dispatching of multiple wind farms based on Pair Copula
Received:October 28, 2022  Revised:November 25, 2022
DOI:j.issn1001-1390.2025.07.019
中文关键词: Pair Copula  随机经济调度  经济风险  准蒙特卡罗  改进的均值-方差模型
英文关键词: Pair Copula, stochastic economic dispatching, economic risk, quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), improved mean-variance model
基金项目:南网科技项目(GXKJXM20190619)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
WEI Hongbo* Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
RUAN Shidi Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
ZHANG Xiongbao Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
ZHENG Zhihao Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
WEI Changfu Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
LIU Xinran Power Dispatching and Control Center, Guangxi Power Grid Co., Ltd. weihongbo19942021@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      近年来,风电并网政策的落实,以及风电渗透率的增加为节能减排起到了积极作用,但由于风电出力具有明显的不确定性和相关性,使得电力系统经济调度也面临巨大挑战。文章提出一种刻画风电场相关性的Pair Copula方法,基于准蒙特卡罗模拟法生成大量风电出力的随机场景,以表征多个相关风电场出力的不确定性。为解决含风电出力的电网随机经济调度问题,构建考虑风险约束的均值-方差模型,所建均方差模型同时涵盖了考虑风电出力不确定性下的经济成本和经济风险,其中经济风险通过燃料成本的最小方差计算得到。为更适应实际调度现状,文章建立燃油成本概率密度函数,并提出预定义的置信区间对所建均方差模型进行改进。通过对改进的IEEE 30节点系统进行算例仿真,验证了所提Pair Copula方法和均值-方差模型的有效性。
英文摘要:
      In recent years, the implementation of wind power grid-connection policy and the increase of wind power penetration have played a positive role in energy conservation and emission reduction. However, due to the obvious uncertainty and correlation of wind power output, the economic dispatching of power system is also facing great challenges. In this paper, a novel Pair Copula method is applied to formulate the dependence of multiple wind farms. A large number of stochastic scenarios, in which the complicated dependence of multiple wind farms are considered, are generated to represent the uncertainties of wind power based on quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) simulations. To solve the stochastic economic dispatching problem with wind power output, a risk constrained mean-variance (MV) model considering risk constraints is constructed. The MV model considers economic cost and economic risk under the uncertainties of wind power simultaneously, among which economic risk is calculated by means of least variance of fuel cost. In order to adapt to the actual scheduling situation, the probability density function (PDF) obtained for fuel cost is established, and a predefined level of confidence interval is proposed to improve the MV model. The effectiveness of the proposed pair copula method and the improved MV model are validated via numerical simulations with a modified IEEE 30-bus system.
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