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文章摘要
基于改进序贯蒙特卡洛的高渗新能源配电网可靠性评估
Research on Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Grid with High Penetration of New Energy Based on Improved Sequential Monte Carlo
Received:October 23, 2024  Revised:November 21, 2024
DOI:10.19753 / j.issn1001-1390.2026.08.014
中文关键词: 新能源  高渗透  配电网  可靠性  蒙特卡洛
英文关键词: new  energy, high  penetration, distribution  grid, reliability, Monte  Carlo
基金项目:国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(B311LS230 007)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Xu Wentao* State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co,LTD Lishui Power Supply Company WuXinHua737@163.com 
Wu Jiayi State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co,LTD WuXinHua737@163.com 
Wu Xinhua State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co,LTD Lishui Power Supply Company WuXinHua737@163.com 
Tu Xiaoying State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co,LTD Lishui Power Supply Company WuXinHua737@163.com 
Zhou Yizhi State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co,LTD Lishui Power Supply Company WuXinHua737@163.com 
Wang Feng Nanjing Zhihui Electric Power Technology Co,LTD WuXinHua737@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      各类分布式新能源不断接入配电网在带来配电网潮流变化的同时增加了系统的不确定性。针对高渗新能源配电网的可靠性评估问题,文中采用改进的序贯蒙特卡洛模拟方法对其运行可靠性进行估计。文章首先论述了配电网内基于概率分布的风光发电输出功率模型,然后利用自适应重要性采样改进随机模拟过程,以降低随机模拟中的抽样样本方差,提高可靠性指标的计算效率。仿真实验结果表明,所述方法能够提高新能源高渗配电网的可靠性指标计算效率和精度,同时,高渗新能源能够在一定程度上提高配电网的运行可靠性。
英文摘要:
      The integration of distributed new energy changes the power flow and increases system uncertainty in distribution grid. Aiming at the reliability evaluation problem of distribution grid with high penetration rate of new energy, an improved sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is explored to evaluate its reliability. First, the probability distribution models for wind and photovoltaic power generation are discussed. Then the adaptive importance sampling method is used in the Monte Carlo simulation process in order to reduce the sample variance and improve the computation efficiency of reliability indicators. Simulation experiments show that the proposed method can improve the computational accuracy and efficiency of reliability indicators, and high penetration rate of new energy can improve the operation reliability of distribution grid to some extent.
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