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文章摘要
基于混合机器学习的新型电力系统电力电量平衡风险评估方法
Risk assessment method for power and energy balance of novel power system baseon integrating machine learning
Received:January 26, 2025  Revised:February 24, 2025
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2026.06.004
中文关键词: 新型电力系统  电力电量平衡  风险评估  混合机器学习
英文关键词: novel power system, power and energy balance, risk assessment, integrating machine
基金项目:国网山西省电力有限公司科技项目(52053324000B)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
ZHANG Lina* State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company fanhong0113@163.com 
LI Qiang State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute lqiang0126@163.com 
JING Yongming State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute jinyongming2025@163.com 
LIANG Yan State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute liangyan202501@163.com 
LIU Hongli State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute liuhonglifriend@126.com 
WANG Kaikai State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute 3130248718@qq.com 
LE Jian School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University lej01@tsinghua.org.cn 
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中文摘要:
      为了解决极端情况对电力系统电力电量平衡的冲击问题,提出了一种基于混合机器学习的新型电力系统电力电量平衡风险评估方法。建立了新型电力系统的运行模型,其中包含新能源出力模型、储能模型、发电机组和线路潮流模型,考虑以极端天气为主的极端情况,对极端天气场景进行定义,提出新型电力系统面对极端情况下的电力电量不平衡指标,提出了一种混合机器学习优化(integrating machine learning optimization, ILO)方法求解电力电量不平衡。两阶段ILO法包括用于精确策略初始化的模仿学习(imitative learning, IL)阶段和用于高效微调的强化学习(reinforcement learning,RL)阶段。基于PJM5节点系统和改进的IEEE118节点系统的算例仿真结果表明,所提方法可以对电力电量不平衡进行量化定义,并且提高了电力电量平衡风险评估的效率和稳定性。
英文摘要:
      To address the impact of extreme situations on the power and energy balance of the novel power system, a risk assessment method for power and energy balance of the novel power system based on integrating machine learning is proposed. An operation model of the novel power system is established, which includes the output model of new energy sources, the energy storage model, the generator set and the power flow model of transmission lines. Considering extreme situations mainly dominated by extreme weather, the extreme weather scenarios are defined, and the power and energy imbalance indicators of the novel power system under extreme situations are proposed. Anintegrating machine learning optimization (ILO) method is proposed to solve the power and energy imbalance. The two-stage ILO method includes an imitative learning (IL) stage for accurate strategy initialization and a reinforcement learning (RL) stage for efficient fine-tuning. The simulation results based on the PJM5-bus system and the improved IEEE118-bus system show that the proposed method can quantitatively define the power and energy imbalance, and improve the efficiency and stability of the risk assessment of power and energy balance.
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