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文章摘要
基于运行可靠性和元件重要度的灾难性事故风险评估方法
A Catastrophic Accident Risk Assessment Method Based on Operational Reliability and Importance of Component
Received:April 10, 2014  Revised:April 14, 2014
DOI:
中文关键词: 运行可靠性  势能函数  熵  风险评估  灾难性事故
英文关键词: operational  reliability, potential  energy, entropy, risk  assessment, catastrophic  accident
基金项目:四川省科技支撑计划项目(2012GZ0009);四川省电力公司科技项目(12H1541)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
ZHENG Guo* School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University,Smart Grid Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province zhengguo_90@qq.com 
LI Hua-qiang School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University,Smart Grid Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province  
LI Mingjun State Grid Sichuan Daying Electric Power Supply Co,Ltd,Suining  
HUANG yan School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University,Smart Grid Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province  
HE qiang School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University,Smart Grid Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province  
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中文摘要:
      应用运行可靠性理论、熵理论以及风险理论,在综合考虑系统实时运行状态和元件重要度的基础上,提出了一种针对电力系统灾难性事故的风险评估方法。该方法利用计及累积效应的元件运行可靠性模型确定灾难性事故下元件实时故障概率。其次,结合势能函数和熵理论确定了计及有功、无功功率等因素的元件结构重要程度。最终,构建了灾难性事故风险指标,刻画了系统由连锁故障向灾难性事故演变的过程。通过对IEEE57系统仿真,验证了该方法能够有效地辨识系统风险。
英文摘要:
      According to the theory of operational reliability, entropy and risk assessment, this paper proposes an assessment method for catastrophic accident of power system based on the current operation state and the importance of component comprehensively. This method uses component’s operational reliability model that considering the cumulative effect to get it’s real-time failure probability of catastrophic accident. Then combine potential energy with entropy to get it’s structural importance that considering active power, reactive power and other factors. Finally a catastrophic accident risk index is built which shows the process from cascading failure to catastrophic accident. Simulation results on the IEEE 57-bus system prove that this method can identify the risks within the system effectively.
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