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文章摘要
蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统静态安全风险评估中的应用
Monte Carlo Methods in Power System Static SecurityRisk Assessment
Received:June 17, 2014  Revised:June 17, 2014
DOI:
中文关键词: Monte Carlo  静态安全  风险评估  风险理论  层次分析法
英文关键词: Monte Carlo  static security  risk assessment  risk theory  analytic hierarchy process
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
ZHANG Yiming School of Information Engineering,Nanchang University 376573964@qq.com 
LI Yuting* School of Information Engineering,Nanchang University 297137234@qq.com 
HE Lezhang Shangrao Power Supply Company,State Grid Jiangxi Electrical Power Corporation  
YAO Feng Electric power company Of Henan  
ZHANG Zhonghui Electric power company Of Henan  
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中文摘要:
      基于风险理论,综合考虑故障概率和故障严重程度评估电力系统静态安全风险。采用非序贯蒙特卡洛方法抽取系统的故障状态,提出通过失负荷风险指标、电压越限风险指标和过载风险指标对电力系统静态安全进行分析,并采用3标度层次分析法来确定系统单项风险值与综合风险值之间的权重关系。还对各项指标的应用进行了探讨分析,并利用河南某地区实际电网对各项风险指标进行了计算分析。算例表明基于蒙特卡洛方法的电力系统静态安全风险评估是可行的,它能定量的给出系统风险水平,为电力系统静态安全风险分析的研究提供一些有益参考。
英文摘要:
      Considering the fault probability and the severity of the fault based on the risk theory. Use the non-sequential Monte Carlo method to extract the fault status of the system, analyze the static security of the power system by the loss-load risk indicator, the voltage off-limited risk indicator and the overload risk indicator,and use 3-scaled analytic hierarchy process to determine the relationship of weight between the single risk value and the comprehensive risk value. Also discussed the application of the indicators, analyzed and calculated the risk indicators of a real gird. The example shows the power system static security risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method is feasible, can quantitatively given the level of systemic risk, provide some useful reference for power system static security risk analysis study.
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