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文章摘要
基于马尔可夫修正的负荷预测模型在电力能效监测终端中的应用
Load forecasting based on Markov chains and its application in the electric energy acquisition terminal
Received:December 23, 2014  Revised:January 23, 2015
DOI:
中文关键词: 马尔可夫链  指数平滑  电力能效监测终端  
英文关键词: Markov  chains,exponential  smoothing , Electric  energy acquisition  terminal
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
yipuzhi Northeast Forestry University vbediter@126.com 
wangjian* Northeast Forestry University  
xurenheng Harbin Research Institute of Electrical Instruments  
zhangqiuyue Harbin Research Institute of Electrical Instruments  
YANGTONG-Ling Harbin Research Institute of Electrical Instruments  
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中文摘要:
      本文提出了一种基于马尔科夫修正的负荷预测模型在电力效能监测终端中应用的方法。首先,我们运用一次指数平滑法对历史负荷数据进行预处理,并计算出绝对误差;其次,我们运用基于马尔可夫修正的预测模型对一次指数平滑法绝对的状态转移矩阵进行计算,从而获得目标天数电力负荷的预测区间范围;最后,我们以实例验证马尔可夫修正的负荷预测模型的相对误差,给出预测值的更准确范围,并准确地应用于电力能效监测终端。实验结果表明,基于马尔可夫修正的负荷预测模型方法比一次指数平滑法对目标天数电力负荷的预测范围更准确,预测结果更可信。
英文摘要:
      In this paper, a method is presented in which the Markov correction-based load prediction model is applied to the power efficiency monitoring terminal. First, the historical load data is pre-processed by use of an exponential smoothing method, and the relative error is computed; Second, the state transition matrix of the relative error obtained by an exponential smoothing method is computed by use of the Markov correction-based load prediction model, so that the prediction interval of power load in the target days is acquired; Finally, an example is taken to compute the relative error of the Markov correction-based load prediction model, yield a more accurate range of the prediction values, and apply this method to power efficiency monitoring terminal accurately. The experimental results show that in light of the prediction interval of power load in the target days, the Markov correction-based load prediction model has a higher precision than that of the exponential smoothing method. Moreover, the predicted results are more credible with aforementioned method.
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