• HOME
  • About Journal
    • Historical evolution
    • Journal Honors
  • Editorial Board
    • Members of Committee
    • Director of the Committee
    • President and Editor in chief
  • Submission Guide
    • Instructions for Authors
    • Manuscript Processing Flow
    • Model Text
    • Procedures for Submission
  • Academic Influence
  • Open Access
  • Ethics&Policies
    • Publication Ethics Statement
    • Peer Review Process
    • Academic Misconduct Identification and Treatment
    • Advertising and Marketing
    • Correction and Retraction
    • Conflict of Interest
    • Authorship & Copyright
  • Contact Us
  • Chinese
Site search        
文章摘要
基于MCMC方法的二次系统风险评估研究
Research on Secondary System Risk Assessment Based on MCMC Methods
Received:May 07, 2015  Revised:June 02, 2015
DOI:
中文关键词: 二次系统  风险评估  可靠性  MCMC方法  Gibbs抽样  运行方式
英文关键词: secondary  system, risk  assessment, reliability, the  MCMC method, Gibbs  sampler, operation  mode
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Li Shixin* School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University 285535466@qq.com 
Zhou Buxiang School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University  
Zhou Haizhong School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University  
Wang Jingwei School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University  
Hits: 1507
Download times: 646
中文摘要:
      据统计,电力系统的大面积停电事故中,有70%以上都与二次系统有着直接或间接的关系,因此一个高可靠二次系统对建立坚强健康的电网有着至关重要的作用。本文从二次系统的风险程度对电力系统可靠性的影响入手,应用MCMC方法进行研究,提出了系统的四个可靠性指标作为二次系统风险大小的衡量标准。MCMC方法继承了传统MC方法的优点,且有着收敛速度快、计算结果精确、指标稳定的特点,并实现动态模拟。本文通过IEEE-RTS 24节点的算例仿真,说明了MCMC方法的有效性和稳定性。最后本文以贵州地区某电网为算例,研究该地区四种典型运行方式下的可靠性指标,结果表明在冬大的运行方式下二次系统的风险程度更大,这对于建立更加可靠安全的电力系统来说有一定的参考价值。
英文摘要:
      According to the statistics, among large area blackouts in power system, there are more than 70% of the accidents are linked to the secondary system directly or indirectly. So the reliability of the secondary system is vital to the establishment of a strong and health grid. Considering the risk of secondary system affects the reliability of the power system, this article makes a research with application of the MCMC method and puts forward 4 reliability indices of the grid as the measure of the secondary system risk. The MCMC method inherits the advantages of traditional MC method, which has a fast convergence speed, accurate calculation and stable index. Meanwhile the MCMC method realizes dynamic simulation. Through the simulation of IEEE RTS - 24 nodes, this article illustrates the validity and stability of the MCMC method. Finally, taking a Guizhou local grid as an example, this paper calculates 4 reliability indices under 4 typical operation modes. The results show that the secondary system risk is larger in winter operation mode, which has great reference value for establishing a more reliable and security power system.
View Full Text   View/Add Comment  Download reader
Close
  • Home
  • About Journal
    • Historical evolution
    • Journal Honors
  • Editorial Board
    • Members of Committee
    • Director of the Committee
    • President and Editor in chief
  • Submission Guide
    • Instructions for Authors
    • Manuscript Processing Flow
    • Model Text
    • Procedures for Submission
  • Academic Influence
  • Open Access
  • Ethics&Policies
    • Publication Ethics Statement
    • Peer Review Process
    • Academic Misconduct Identification and Treatment
    • Advertising and Marketing
    • Correction and Retraction
    • Conflict of Interest
    • Authorship & Copyright
  • Contact Us
  • 中文页面
Address: No.2000, Chuangxin Road, Songbei District, Harbin, China    Zip code: 150028
E-mail: dcyb@vip.163.com    Telephone: 0451-86611021
© 2012 Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation
黑ICP备11006624号-1
Support:Beijing Qinyun Technology Development Co., Ltd