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文章摘要
基于小波包-神经网络的太阳逐时辐射预测
Study on Prediction of Solar Radiation Intensity Based on Wavelet Decomposition and BP Neural Network
Received:May 08, 2015  Revised:May 08, 2015
DOI:
中文关键词: 太阳辐射  预测  小波包变换  神经网络
英文关键词: Solar radiation, Forecast, Wavelet transform, Neural Network
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
chen jie College of Electrical Engineering, Xin jiang University 641409656@qq.com 
zhang xin yan* College of Electrical Engineering, Xin jiang University xjcxzxy@126.com 
Lv Guang Jian College of Electrical Engineering, Xin jiang University  
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中文摘要:
      太阳辐射量受到季节、大气状况、云况、温度、湿度甚至沙尘等气象因素的影响,表现为强烈的时变性和随机性。对于非线性的辐射量预测,目前已提出了许多方法,但依然存在智能算法的选取不合理、网络结构泛化能力差、预测精度不理想等不足。针对光伏电站太阳逐时辐射强度数据特征不明显、普通BP网络难以完全映射其特征的缺点,提出了一种基于小波包-神经网络的预测模型(WPNN),利用小波包变换将辐射强度序列进行多尺度分解,并创建多个BP模型对各分量预测,最后通过重构得到最终的预测结果。结果表明,预测精度明显提高,满足预期效果,证明该模型的有效性和实际意义。
英文摘要:
      The amount of solar radiation affected by the season, atmospheric conditions, cloud conditions, temperature, humidity and even dust and other weather factors with a strong time variability and randomness. For the prediction method for nonlinear radiation, at present, someone put forward many methods. However, there is still lack of selecting the unreasonable intelligent algorithm,network structure poor generalization ability and prediction accuracy is not ideal. Aiming at the deficiency of that a photovoltaic power station solar radiation intensity of the original hourly data is not obvious and the normal BP neural network can not be completely mapped its features, it put forward a forecasting model based on Wavelet Packet Neural Network . It used wavelet packet to transform the radiation intensity sequence multiscale decomposition and established several BP neural networks to forecast each frequency components, obtaining the complete prediction value with the wavelet packet reconstruction finally. Results show that the prediction accuracy was significantly improved to meet the expected results, demonstrating the effectiveness and practical value of the model.
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