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文章摘要
基于混合模型和交叉熵重要性抽样的 发电系统可靠性评估
Power Generation System Reliability Evaluation Based on Mixture Model and Cross Entropy Importance Sampling
Received:September 24, 2015  Revised:October 21, 2015
DOI:
中文关键词: 发电系统  蒙特卡洛法  可靠性评估  混合模型  交叉熵重要抽样
英文关键词: Power Generation System  Monte Carlo  Reliability Evaluation  Mixture Model  Cross Entropy
基金项目:基金项目:上海绿色能源并网工程技术研究中心资助(项目编号:13DZ2251900)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
wangshaowei* Shanghai University of Electrical Power wangsw19900609@163.com 
luopingping Shanghai University of Electrical Power 147824260@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      目前应用在发电系统可靠性评估中的交叉熵重要性抽样方法在求解发电系统最优概率质量函数时是基于对单一的概率质量函数进行迭代计算,在处理高可靠性系统时需要进行大量的预抽样以得到最优概率质量函数,导致可靠性评估总体效率的下降。因此本文提出基于混合概率质量函数模型与交叉熵重要性抽样的发电系统可靠性评估新方法,该方法赋予多个概率质量函数不同的权重并同时对不同概率质量函数进行迭代计算,最后由不同概率质量函数加权形成最优概率质量函数,并利用其对系统状态进行抽样和可靠性计算,可以在保证可靠性指标准确性的同时大幅加快系统可靠性指标的收敛速度,并且在处理高可靠性系统时所需样本总数更少。算例验证了文中方法的优势。
英文摘要:
      The cross-entropy method which is used in solving the optimal probability mass function(PMF) of power generation system is based on the iteration of a single PMF, resulting in large number of state samplers must be needed and decreasing the efficiency of the calculation of reliability indexes consequently. We proposed a cross-entropy method based on the iteration of a mixture of many PMFs with different weights and take samplers to calculate the reliability indexes based on the mixture. With the proposed method, the convergence of the indexes will be faster while the accuracy is satisfactory, the samplers needed in the reliability evaluation of high-reliable system will be much less. Computational results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.
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