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文章摘要
基于相似日和WNN的光伏发电功率超短期预测模型
A Very Short-term Prediction Model for Photovoltaic Power Based on Similar Days and Wavelet Neural Network
Received:January 21, 2016  Revised:March 24, 2016
DOI:
中文关键词: 光伏功率预测  相似日  灰色关联  WNN  超短期
英文关键词: photovoltaic power forecast,similar day,Grey Association,WNN,very short-term
基金项目:云南省科技厅计划重点项目
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
songrenjie School of Information Science and Engineering, Northeast Dianli University srj1953331@sina.com 
liufusheng* School of Information Science and Engineering, Northeast Dianli University 877673821@qq.com 
madongmei State Grid JiLin Power Supply Company Comunication Branch 2402656@sina.com 
wanglin State Grid JiLin Power Supply Company Comunication Branch 2402656@sina.com 
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中文摘要:
      光伏发电功率预测对提高并网后电网的稳定性及安全性具有重要意义。文章提出一种基于相似日和小波神经网络(WNN)的光伏功率超短期预测方法。利用光伏发电系统的历史气象信息建立气象特征向量,通过计算灰色关联度寻找相似日。采用自相关性分析找出与预测时刻功率相关性最大的几个历史时刻功率,使用历史时刻的输出功率,风速,辐照度,温度作为WNN预测模型的输入向量,对预测时刻的输出功率直接预测。实验结果表明,该方法建立的预测模型具有较高的精度,为解决光伏发电系统超短期功率预测提供了一种可行路径。
英文摘要:
      Photovoltaic(PV) generation prediction has great significance for the stability and security of power grid after the PV grid-connected. This paper puts forward a model of very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting method based on similar days and wavelet neural networks. By using historical weather information from the PV power generation system, meteorological feature vectors are established,and similar days are found based on Computation Grey Correlation Degree. Autocorrelation analysis was used to discover historical output power which has great relation with predicted output power.The input vectors of WNN predictive model were historical output power, wind speeds,irradiance,temperature,To predict the output power of the forecasting time directly.The simulation result show that this model has high accuracy,and can provide an effective and feasible way to forecast the PV system very short-term power output.
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