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文章摘要
光伏发电短期预测研究进展综述
An overview of research progress of short-term photovoltaic forecasts
Received:April 18, 2016  Revised:April 18, 2016
DOI:
中文关键词: 光伏发电  光照幅度  短期预测  直接预测方法  间接预测方法
英文关键词: photovoltaic, irradiance, shirt-term  forecast, direct  prediction, indirect  prediction
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Jing Bo School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Jiangsu University 11172181@qq.com 
Tan Lunnong School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Jiangsu University tln@ujs.edu.cn 
Qian Zheng* School of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beihang University qianzheng@buaa.edu.cn 
Pei Yan School of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beihang University peiyan@buaa.edu.cn 
Wang Jingyi School of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beihang University wangjingyi1990@buaa.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      随着光伏电站装机容量的迅速增加,光伏发电功率短期预测对电力部门合理规划调度用电起到了重要作用。本文对近年来国内外光伏发电短期预测的研究进展进行了综述,分析、讨论了间接预测方法和直接预测方法的优势与不足。结果表明:间接预测方法的预测精度高于直接预测方法,而直接预测方法的优势在于无需建立光照幅度预测模型,建模较为容易,其中大量使用的混合预测模型具备更好的适应性和容错性。此外,天气变化是影响光伏发电功率短期预测准确性的一个关键因素,研究人员为此提出多种解决方法以降低天气状况对功率预测的影响。
英文摘要:
      With the increase of installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants, short-term photovoltaic forecast is playing an important role in electricity planning and scheduling of power system. This paper reviews the recent progress on the research of short-term photovoltaic forecasts, and discusses the advantages and limitation of direct and indirect prediction methods respectively. The result shows that the accuracy of indirect prediction is better than that of direct prediction. Without the irradiance prediction modeling, the direct prediction is relatively simple, in which the widely-used hybrid forecast method is much more adaptive and fault-tolerant. In addition, the paper also concludes that weather change is a crucial factor that affects the accuracy of short-term photovoltaic forecasts, and proposes several solutions to reduce the impact of weather conditions on photovoltaic forecasts.
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