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文章摘要
基于VMD-SE-IPSO-BNN的超短期风电功率预测*
Ultra Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Based on VMD-SE-IPSO-BNN
Received:March 16, 2017  Revised:March 16, 2017
DOI:
中文关键词: 超短期风电功率预测  可变模式分解  样本熵  改进粒子群算法  贝叶斯神经网络  预测精度
英文关键词: ultra short-term wind power forecasting  variational mode decomposition  sample entropy  improved particle swarm optimization  bayesian neural network  prediction accuracy
基金项目:广东省科技计划项目(2016A010104016); 广东电网公司科技项目(GDKJQQ20152066)。
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Yin Hao Guangdong University of Technology dzlz2321@sina.cn 
Dong Zhen* Guangdong University of Technology 735824318@qq.com 
Meng An-bo Guangdong University of Technology 772802852@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      准确预测风电功率对风电规模化并网至关重要。为了更精确的对风电功率进行预测,提出一种基于可变模式分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)-样本熵(sample entropy,SE)和改进粒子群算法(improved particle swarm optimization,IPSO)优化贝叶斯神经网络(bayesian neural network,BNN)的超短期风电功率组合预测模型。首先采用VMD-SE将原始风电功率时间序列分解为一系列不同带宽的模式分量以降低其非线性,然后对全部分量分别建立贝叶斯神经网络模型进行预测,并采用IPSO对神经网络的权值和阈值进行寻优,以求获得最佳的预测效果。实验结果表明,基于VMD-SE的预测模型较采用其他常规分解方式时预测精度明显提高,本文所提组合预测模型具有较高的预测精度。
英文摘要:
      Accurately predicting wind power is of key importance for large scale wind power connecting to the grid. To predict the wind speed more accurately, a combined model based on variational mode decomposition- sample entropy(VMD-SE) and bayesian neural network optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) is proposed for ultra short-term wind power prediction. First, the wind power time series was decomposed into a series of wind speed sub-modes with different bandwidths to reduce its non-linearity by using VMD-SE. Then, the Bayesian neural network is established for all sub-modes, and the weights and thresholds of the Bayesian neural network are optimized by IPSO to obtain optimal prediction results. Simulation results demonstrate that the forecasting model based on VMD-SE has higher prediction accuracy than other conventional decomposition methods. The proposed model has higher prediction accuracy.
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