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文章摘要
基于邻域KNN算法的短期风电功率预测
Short - term Wind Power Prediction Based on KNN Algorithm Considering Neighbors’ Density
Received:May 03, 2017  Revised:May 03, 2017
DOI:
中文关键词: 邻域KNN算法  风力发电  短期功率预测
英文关键词: KNN  algorithm considering  neighbors’ density, wind  power generation, short-term  power prediction
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Zhu Nianfang* College of Internet of Things Engineering,Hohai University znfcourtesy@163.com 
Lin Shanming College of Internet of Things Engineering,Hohai University 19861473@hhu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      区域电网的总体运行以及电网内电压的稳定性易受风电功率波动的影响,高精度的短期风电功率预测能够确保风电电力系统供电的稳定性和安全性。本文在KNN算法的基础上,提出了基于邻域密度的邻域KNN算法,应用于风电功率的短期预测。邻域KNN算法,首先找出测试对象在一定邻域范围内的训练样本集,统计训练样本集在空间每个维度的密度分布;然后计算出K值,不同的时刻,K值是动态变化的;最后根据KNN算法规则,将测试对象归类。以常州某风电场为例,利用邻域KNN算法对其历史数据进行分析并作出预测,验证了该算法的准确性与有效性。
英文摘要:
      The overall operation and the voltage stability of power grid network are likely to be affected by the fluctuations of wind power. High accuracy of short-term wind power prediction can guarantee the stability and safety of power supply system. This paper proposes a KNN algorithm considering neighbors’ density on the basis of KNN algorithm, applying to short - term wind power prediction. The KNN algorithm considering neighbors’ density, firstly identifies training samples within the given domain of testing object and figures out density distribution of the training samples in each dimension; and secondly calculates the value of K, which dynamically changes at different times; and finally, the test object is classified according to the KNN algorithm. Taking a wind farm in Changzhou as an example, its historical data was analyzed and then predictions were made through the KNN algorithm considering neighbors’ density, proving accuracy and validity of the algorithm.
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