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文章摘要
基于通用分布的风电功率出力动态场景生成方法
A Method of Dynamic Scenarios Generation of Wind Power Output Based on versatile distribution
Received:November 14, 2017  Revised:November 14, 2017
DOI:
中文关键词: 风电功率  通用分布  场景生成  波动性建模
英文关键词: wind power, versatile distribution, scenario generation, volatility modeling
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
CAO Huiqiu School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University 754114735@qq.com 
XU Jian School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University 19221935@qq.com 
HONG Min* Jinhua Electric Power Company 754114735@qq.com 
LIAO Siyang School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University 1002106429@qq.com 
ZHOU Guohai School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University 1073083851@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      随着大规模风电接入电网,风电功率的不确定性使得电力系统的运行与调度面临着新的挑战。针对风电功率的不确定性,本文提出了基于通用分布的风电功率动态场景生成方法,将风电的不准确性转化为确定性模型。本文首先利用通用分布良好的拟合特性去近似表征风电功率的实际分布,然后对风电的波动性进行建模,通过逆变换抽样的方法生成大量既符合风电的随机性又符合波动性的场景。为了验证所提方法的有效性,本文从场景生成的速度和精确程度方面进行了比较。以实际风电数据为基础的仿真算例验证了所提的基于通用分布的风电功率出力动态场景生成方法的可行性。
英文摘要:
      With increasing grid integration of large scale wind power, the uncertainty of wind power output is new challenge to the operation and scheduling of power system. In view of the uncertainty of wind power, this paper proposed a method of generating dynamic scenarios of wind power output based on the versatile distribution, transforming the inaccuracy to a deterministic model. This paper firstly uses the good fitting characteristics of versatile distribution to approximate the actual distribution of wind power, then models the volatility of wind power, through the inverse transform sampling method to generate lots of scenarios set which is consistent with the wind power randomness and volatility. In order to verify the validity of the method, this paper measures the speed and precision of scenario generation method. The simulation results based on the actual wind power data show that the proposed method is feasible for the wind power generation based on versatile distribution.
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