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文章摘要
基于拟蒙特卡罗和半不变量法的概率潮流计算
Calculation of probabilistic load flow based on Quasi Monte Carlo sampling and cumulant method
Received:January 05, 2018  Revised:January 05, 2018
DOI:
中文关键词: 拟蒙特卡罗  风电系统  概率潮流  半不变量法
英文关键词: Quasi Monte Carlo Simulation(QMCS), Wind power system, Probabilistic power flow, Semi invariant method
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51367014)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
wanchangshao Nanchang University wanchangshao@163.com 
Zhu Ziwei* Nanchang University zhuziwei@tsinghua.org.cn 
Hu Hongquan Nanchang University 1160789082@qq.com 
Huang Jianping Nanchang University jphuang2016@163.com 
Long Xing Nanchang University longxin_9946@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      为实现含风电出力电网概率潮流计算精度的提高,本文提出一种结合拟蒙特卡罗和半不变量的方法。建立风电出力模型,采用拟蒙特卡罗模拟法(QMCS)抽取Sobol确定性低偏差点列,结合半不变量法,算出节点状态变量以及各支路潮流的半不变量,引入Gram-Charlier级数,以概率潮流计算为工具,对相关节点电压进行模拟,并与传统蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)方法和MCS结合半不变量法对比。算例表明,相同抽样次数下QMCS结合半不变量法的计算结果更接近真解,并且计算速度相对更快。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the accuracy of probabilistic power flow calculation with wind power system, a method combining Quasi Monte Carlo and semi invariant is proposed in this paper. The establishment of wind power model, the quasi Monte Carlo method (QMCS) to extract Sobol deterministic low discrepancy, combined with the semi invariant method, semi invariant computing node state variables and branch power flow, the introduction of Gram-Charlier series expansion, and the probabilistic load flow calculation tool of node voltage is simulated and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo method and Monte Carlo simulation with semi invariant contrast method. The calculation results show that the results of QMCS combined with the semi invariants method under the same sampling times are closer to the true solution, and the calculation speed is relatively faster.
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