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文章摘要
基于特征相关分析修正的GPSO-LSTM短期负荷预测
GPSO-LSTM short-term load forecasting based on feature correlation analysis and correction
Received:July 16, 2019  Revised:August 05, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2021.06.006
中文关键词: 探索性数据分析  长短期记忆循环神经网络  模型构建  全局粒子群优化  短期负荷预测
英文关键词: exploratory data analysis, long short-term memory recursive neural network, model construction, global particle swarm optimization, short term load forecasting
基金项目:用户电能感知物联网技术研究与应用(SKLLDJ032016021)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
guofuao* Shanghai University of Electric Power 282299646@qq.com 
2 22 2@163.com 
3 3 3@163.com 
4 4 4@163.com 
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中文摘要:
      针对多因素互影响造成负荷预测精度低的问题,提出一种基于特征相关分析修正与全局粒子群优化(GPSO)的长短期记忆循环神经网络(LSTM)短期负荷预测新方法。该方法首先对负荷相关序列进行探索性数据分析(EDA)及预处理,找寻特征内在机理与相关联系并加以修正,保证输入特征的强相关性和完整性。针对传统前馈神经网络无法处理序列关联信息和普通循环神经网络无法记忆久远关键信息的缺陷,构建基于LSTM负荷预测模型进行深度学习。由于LSTM网络权值的随机初始化,使得目标函数在训练过程中易陷入局部最优,利用改进粒子群算法优化预测模型的网络权值,提升模型整体预测能力。与反向传播神经网络(BPNN)和递归神经网络(Elman)的基准模型相比,所提模型方法的预测精度提高显著。
英文摘要:
      To solve the problem of low accuracy of load prediction caused by the interaction of multiple factors, a new method of long short-term memory recursive neural network (LSTM) short-term load prediction based on feature correlation analysis correction and global particle swarm optimization (GPSO) was proposed. This method firstly carries on the exploratory data analysis (EDA) and preprocessing to the load correlation sequences, finds the intrinsic mechanism of the characteristics and the correlation relations, and then revises them to ensure the strong correlation and integrity of the input characteristics. Aiming at the defects of the traditional feedforward neural network which cannot process the sequence correlation information and the ordinary recuisive neural network which cannot remember the remote key information, Deep learning based on LSTM load prediction model was constructed. Due to the random initialization of LSTM network weights, the objective function is prone to fall into the local optimal during the training process. The improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the network weights of the prediction model and improve the overall prediction ability of the model. Compared with the benchmark models of back propagation neural network (BPNN) and recursive neural network (Elman), the prediction accuracy of the proposed model method is significantly improved.
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