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文章摘要
电力系统单用户超短期负荷预测算法研究
Super Short Term Load Forecasting Algorithm for Single User Based on Markov Process and Heatmap
Received:July 30, 2019  Revised:July 30, 2019
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2020.001.003
中文关键词: 马尔可夫过程  负荷预测  单用户  超短期预测  热力图
英文关键词: Markov  process, Load  forecasting, Single  user, Ultra-short-term  forecast, Heatmap
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),国家自然科学基金项目( 项目编号)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Jiao Xiaoquan* School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University jiaoxiaoquan@163.com 
Xu Qingshan School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University xuqingshan2@seu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      不同于10kV以上线路的负荷预测,单用户的超短期负荷预测往往表现出很高的不准确性。首先分析了这种不准确性的来源,表明这种不准确性是无法避免的。针对该问题不再以负荷曲线为预测目标,而是提出了以热力图来表示负荷预测结果的思路。其次,将热力图与马尔可夫过程的基本原理相结合,设计了单用户的超短期负荷预测算法。这种算法包含预测数据初始化、增量更新以及预测结果生成等三个环节。最后,以苏州市姑苏区用户的实际数据进行实验,结果验证本文所述算法的准确度较高,具备实用价值。
英文摘要:
      Different from the load forecasting of lines above 10kV, the super short term forecasting of a single user tends to be highly inaccurate. The paper first analyzes the source of this inaccuracy, indicating that this inaccuracy is inevitable. In view of this problem, the load curve is no longer taken as the forecast target, but the idea of using heatmap to represent the load forecasting result is put forward in this paper. Then, this paper combines the heatmap with the basic principle of Markov process, and designs a single user super short term load forecasting algorithm. This algorithm includes the initialization, incremental update and generation of forecasting data. Finally, the experimental verification of user data in Gusu district of Suzhou city shows that the algorithm presented in this paper has high accuracy and practical value.
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