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文章摘要
基于相似日匹配及TCN-Attention的短期光伏出力预测
Short-term photovoltaic output forecasting based on similar day matching and TCN-Attention
Received:June 10, 2020  Revised:June 10, 2020
DOI:DOI: 10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2022.10.016
中文关键词: 短期光伏出力预测  时序卷积网络  Attention机制  形态聚类  最大信息系数
英文关键词: short-term photovoltaic output forecasting, temporal convolutional network, Attention mechanism, shape-based clustering, maximal information coefficient
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目( No.61872230; No.U1936213)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
chen yufan college of computer science and technology, shanghai university of electric power 525030570@qq.com 
wen mi college of computer science and technology, shanghai university of electric power miwen@shiep.edu.cn 
zhang kai* college of computer science and technology, shanghai university of electric power kzhang@shiep.edu.cn 
yu shan college of computer science and technology, shanghai university of electric power 850427983@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      短期光伏出力预测对电力系统生产调度计划的合理制定极其重要,有助于促进光伏发电并网和消纳。光伏出力受气象特征影响较大,其过程具有波动性、间歇性、不可控等特点,导致快速、精准地进行短期光伏出力预测成为一项挑战。对此,文章提出一种基于相似日匹配及TCN-Attention的组合预测模型。文章采用时间序列形态聚类算法和最大信息系数对光伏出力的相似性进行刻画,避免全部历史数据作为输入所产生的数据冗余,利用可并行计算的时序卷积网络学习光伏出力特征,引入Attention机制突出关键气象特征的影响,有效提高模型训练速度和预测精度。基于实际数据的实验结果表明,较之其他预测方法,文章提出的方法具有信息提取直接、训练速度快、预测精度高等优点。
英文摘要:
      Short-term photovoltaic output forecasting is essential for the reasonable formulation of power system production scheduling plan, which can promote the grid-connection and consumption of photovoltaic power generation. Nevertheless, the photovoltaic output is greatly affected by meteorological characteristics, and the generation process has the characteristics of volatility, intermittence and uncontrollability, therefore, the rapid and accurate short-term photovoltaic output forecasting has become a big challenge. To tackle the challenge, this paper proposes a TCN-Attention combination forecasting model based on similar day matching. We employ time series shape-based clustering algorithm and maximal information coefficient to characterize the similarity of photovoltaic output. As a result, the data redundancy caused by all historical data as input can be certainly avoided, we use the temporal convolutional network with parallel computing to learn the photovoltaic output characteristics, and introduce Attention mechanism to highlight the influence of key meteorological characteristics. Thus, the training speed and prediction accuracy of the model can be certainly improved. The results of the conducted experiment based on real data show that the proposed method has the following advantages of direct information extraction, fast training speed and high prediction accuracy.
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