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文章摘要
基于Shapley组合模型及神经网络的电能表需求预测研究
Production scheduling of power meter based on Shapley method and neural networks
Received:January 15, 2021  Revised:February 12, 2021
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2021.09.028
中文关键词: Shapley组合模型  RBF神经网络  BP神经网络  Holt-Winters模型  电能表预测
英文关键词: Shapley method, RBF neural network, BP neural network, Holt-Winters model, Electricity meter prediction
基金项目:国网河北省电力有限公司科技项目(5204DY200002)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Li Chong* Marketing Service Center, State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co. Ltd. lichongchn1982@163.com 
Shen Hongtao Marketing Service Center, State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co. Ltd. shenhongtaochn@163.com 
Liu Jianhua State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co. Ltd. liujianhuachn@126.com 
Wu Yi Di State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co. Ltd. wuyd@he.sgcc.com.cn 
SunXiaoTeng State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co. Ltd. 893733801@qq.com 
Zhang Ying Shenzhen Guodian Technology Communication Co. Ltd. zhangying6@sgitg.sgcc.com.cn 
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中文摘要:
      针对电能表需求预测问题,文章建立基于Shapley组合模型及神经网络的电能表合理优化分配模型,以提升需求预测精度。文章通过挖掘历史数据,采用Holt-Winters、BP神经网络和RBF神经网络模型对电能表需求分别进行预测、对比和分析,并且引入Shapley法对三类预测模型进行组合建模,求取相应模型的权重,获取最优的生产调度方案。仿真实验结果表明,RBF神经网络模型预测精度要高于BP神经网络和Holt-Winters模型。相较于单一模型,Shapley法组合模型具有更好的效果和实用性,有助于电网公司建立高效、科学的生产调度计划。
英文摘要:
      In terms of the optimization and distribution problem of power metering, a neural networks based power metering scheduling model is developed to improve the prediction accuracy. The production scheduling process is influenced by multi-factors including demand, purchasing, and calibration plans, etc. In this paper, by mining the historical data, Holt-Winters model, BP neural network model and RBF neural network model are used to predict, compare, and analyze the demand of electricity meters. In addition, Shapley method is adopted to obtain a combined model based on two models with smallest performance measures, where weights of the corresponding models are calculated to obtain the optimal production scheduling scheme. Numerical simulation indicate that the prediction accuracy of RBF neural network model is higher than those of BP neural network and Holt-Winters model. Moreover, in contrast to the single-model based method, Shapley combined model is more effective and more practical, which can be used for grid companies to establish efficient and scientific production scheduling plan.
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